India’s economy is expected to grow at 8.3% for Fiscal Year 2021-22 as per the World Bank’s latest projections. This rate, however, masked the damage caused by the “enormous” second wave of COVID-19, the Bank said in its June 2021 Global Economic Prospects released on Tuesday. The world economy is expected to expand 5.6% , the fastest post-recession growth rate in eighty years, but global output will still be 2% below pre-pandemic projections by year-end.
The growth rate forecasted for India for 2021-22, the World Bank is an upward revision from its January forecast of 5.4%. However this revision “masks significant expected economic damage from an enormous second COVID-19 wave and localized mobility restrictions since March 2021,” the report says, adding that activity will follow the same but less pronounced collapse and recovery seen in last year’s COVID wave.
“Activity will benefit from policy support, including higher spending on infrastructure, rural development, and health, and a stronger-than[1]expected recovery in services and manufacturing,” the report says.
For FY 2022-23 growth is expected to slow to 7.5% as a result of the pandemic’s lingering effects on the balance sheets of households, companies and banks and possibly low levels of consumer confidence and heightened uncertainty around job and incomes.
For India the massive COVID-19 wave had undermined the sharper than expected rebound in activity for the second half of FY 2020-21 – particularly in services, according to the Bank. Since March, foot traffic around retail spaces has slowed to below a third of what it was in pre-pandemic times.
For the world as a whole, losses to per capita income will not be reversed by 2022 for some two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies, the Bank said. Low income countries that have lagged in vaccinations have witnessed a reversal in poverty reduction, with the pandemic exacerbating insecurity and other long-standing challenges.
“While there are welcome signs of global recovery, the pandemic continues to inflict poverty and inequality on people in developing countries around the world,” World Bank Group President David Malpass said in a press statement.
“Globally coordinated efforts are essential to accelerate vaccine distribution and debt relief, particularly for low-income countries. As the health crisis eases, policymakers will need to address the pandemic’s lasting effects and take steps to spur green, resilient, and inclusive growth while safeguarding macroeconomic stability,” he said.
