Fitch Ratings on Friday said that the high debt burden of the government constrains India’s rating upgrade, a day after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley projecting a fiscal deficit of 3.5 % of GDP against the earlier target of 3.2 %.
The 2018-19 Union Budget unveiled on Thursday contains a number of policy measures with the potential to support economic demand and social well being.
“If implemented well, spending on such measures would likely reach a large part of the electorate, which is not insignificant with general elections coming up,” Fitch Ratings Director and Primary Sovereign analyst for India Thomas Rookmaaker has said.
He said that weak public finances “constrain India’s sovereign ratings, given a high general government debt burden of around 68 % of GDP and a wide fiscal balance of 6.5 % of GDP if states are included.
The Budget has pegged fiscal deficit at 3.5 % of GDP in current year ending March, higher than 3.2 % targeted earlier.
For the next fiscal, the deficit is projected to be 3.3 % of GDP.
“The government has kicked out its steady 3 % fiscal deficit target further to 2020-21, well beyond its term.
This compares to its initial medium-term fiscal plan of 2014, when it first announced to postpone the 3 % target by one year from 2016-17 to 2017-18,” Rookmaaker added.
The government’s commitment to embrace the recommendation of the FRBM committee to adopt a ceiling of 40 % of GDP for central government debt is positive, even though the temporary delay in consolidation makes it unlikely that this debt level will be reached by 2022-23, as recommended by the committee last year, Rookmaaker said.
Citing weak fiscal position, US-based agency Fitch in May last year had kept India’s sovereign rating unchanged at ’BBB-’, the lowest investment grade with stable outlook.
