The European Commission on Thursday cut its forecasts for the eurozone’s economic growth this year, citing among the top causes for its revision trade tensions with the United States and rising oil prices which push the bloc’s inflation higher.
The slowdown of the eurozone economy is set to affect all major economies of the bloc, but is expected to hit Italy harder, as the country will record the lowest growth rate in Europe, matched only by Britain among all 28 EU countries.
The EU executive estimated the 19-country eurozone will grow by 2.1% this year, lower than the 2.3% gross domestic product (GDP) increase it had forecast in its previous estimates released in May, and well below last year’s 2.4% growth.
In 2019 the bloc’s growth should further slow to 2.0%, unchanged from the previous forecast.
“The downward revision of GDP growth since May shows that an unfavourable external environment, such as growing trade tensions with the U.S., can dampen confidence and take a toll on economic expansion,” EU commission’s vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said.
The negative impact of trade disputes on the European and global economy are expected to be much bigger in case of escalation, the EU economics commissioner Pierre Moscovici said.
“Trade wars produce no winners, only casualties,” he stressed.
Rising oil prices have also contributed to the slowdown, the commission said, and are expected to push eurozone inflation up to 1.7% this year and next, from the previously estimated 1.5% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019.
U.K., Italy blues
Germany and France, the bloc’s two largest economies, are expected to lose steam this year and next. Germany’s GDP expansion will slow to 1.9% this year and in 2019. It grew 2.2% last year. France’s economy will grow 1.7% this year and next, much below the 2.2% growth it experienced last year.
The bloc’s slowest-growing economy will remain Italy which is expected to grow only 1.3% this year, less than the 1.5% estimated in May. Only Britain is expected to match Italy’s sluggish growth. It will grow 1.3 % this year, a big drop from the 1.7 GDP rise recorded last year.
