Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has revised its real GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to six per cent from 5.8 per cent.
“We have upward revised our real GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year to six per cent from 5.8 per cent.
This revision comes on account of a better-than expected performance of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and cargo movement at ports and railways,” it said.
An increase in advance tax payments by corporate is also a clear indicator of an improvement in the economy, the city-based think-thank said in its monthly review here.
Since June 2009, the domestic economic situation has changed dramatically and the adverse impact of the global liquidity crisis has almost become history, it said.
“In June and July 2009, the performance of the manufacturing sector was much better than expected. The production index of the manufacturing sector grew by 7.8 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively, in these months.”
CMIE expects this robust growth to continue in the remaining months of the current fiscal. The growth will be led by cement, automobiles and electricity segments.
Two factors that can hurt industrial growth are poor monsoon and slow bank credit take-off. Despite this the growth will exceed expectations. “As a result, we are revising the IIP growth forecast for 2009-10 to 5.8 per cent from 5.1 per cent.”
