“Empires are complex structures and cannot be dismantled solely by the whims of a single ruler,” writes Sreeram Chaulia in his book, Trumped: Emerging Powers in a Post-American World . But actions by rulers at critical historical junctures could trigger the unravelling of empires. Chaulia gives several examples to buttress his theory.
Emperor Ashoka’s decision to switch to pacifism after the bloody conquest of Kalinga would lead to the decline of the Maurya Empire. Dom Pedro II’s decision to loosen his monarchical grip was a pivotal moment in the collapse of the Brazilian empire in the 19th century.
In late 20th century, Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms would weaken the Soviet Union’s grip over the republics, leading to the eventual disintegration of the USSR. The U.S., according to Chaulia, is facing its moment of reckoning like other empires did with President Donald Trump’s ‘offbeat individualism’ taking centrestage.
The stronger side of the book is that Chaulia doesn’t extricate the leader from history. He doesn’t look at the decline of the U.S. as a Trump problem. Rather, Trump is a product of that decline whose economic nationalism and isolationist policies could precipitate the fall of the American empire bringing in radical changes in the global system.
The U.S.’s relative decline, Chaulia writes, is a secular trend, which was visible even during the stints of Trump’s predecessors. The difference with Trump is that he doesn’t share the American establishment’s liberal internationalist worldview. Since World War II, American Presidents have played a key role in shaping the liberal international global order, which during the Cold War acted as a bulwark against the Communist bloc and thereafter as a U.S.-centric unipolar system. Trump sees the liberal international global order as a “conspiracy concocted by liberal American elites to impoverish and suppress ordinary American people.” So he’s adopted a neo-mercantilist, transactional capitalist policy that’s rooted in American nationalism. This is Trump’s America First doctrine, which practically precipitates America’s decline as a global power.
Bipolar contest again?
So what comes next? Russia and China have already established themselves as big powers in their immediate regions. Does the American decline mean that the world will again slip into a bipolar contest? Or a tri-polar one? It doesn’t have to, according to Chaulia.
There are emerging countries which could seize the moment. “The path to a multipolar world never seemed less imminent than when Trump arrived on the scene,” he writes. In the book, he identifies four such emerging powers — India, Turkey, Brazil and Nigeria.
Next in line
The central message of Trumped is that emerging powers can seize this moment only if they have the apt political leadership. Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who has pulled the country back from the South-South cooperation approach adopted by his leftist predecessors and moved closer towards a declining U.S., doesn’t tick all the columns. Nor does Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose short-sighted adventurism in West Asia is not helping Turkey’s strategic path to greatness. But Narendra Modi of India and Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria are ‘safer bets’ for their respective countries, writes Chaulia.
When Trump assumed presidency, India wanted the special partnership to continue. But there was a problem. Trump’s predecessors saw India as a democratic bulwark against a rising communist China.
They saw China as a threat to the liberal international order. Here Trump himself doesn’t subscribe to this liberal internationalism. His problem with China is its trade practices. And Trump sees India’s trade practices also in the same light.
Chaulia believes that the India-China standoff at Doklam was a historic opportunity for the U.S. to make sure where it stands. But the Trump administration remained ambivalent, much to the surprise of the Indians. Trump’s decision to hold talks with the Taliban seeking an exit from Afghanistan also undermines India’s interests in the region. A disappointed Modi decided to reassert India’s strategic autonomy. Chaulia gives the examples of India’s S-400 missile system deal with Russia and Modi’s outreach to China through the Wuhan summit after the Doklam standoff.
Strategic autonomy, or previously non-alignment, has been the bedrock of India’s foreign policy. India has shifted its foreign policy directions in accordance with changes in the global order, but has always been wary of surrendering its strategic autonomy. Unlike Bolsonaro, Modi followed suit, reasserting the historical trend. But to shift its emerging power status into a big power one, India needs to do more, especially in the neighbourhood. Its ties with Pakistan is immensely hostile.
China has made steady inroads to most of its neighbouring countries. Ties with Bangladesh, an all-weather friend, have also strained after the citizenship row in India. How can India become a stable big regional power if it fails to maintain its benign influence on its neighbours? Therefore, while Chaulia’s assessment about the decline of the U.S. and the Trump opportunity holds true for our times, it’s to be seen whether emerging powers, including India, is ready for the moment.
Trumped: Emerging Powers in a Post-American World; Sreeram Chaulia, Bloomsbury, ₹799.
