This is an important year for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and for India-ASEAN relations. While ASEAN is celebrating five decades of its existence, ASEAN and India commemorate 25 years of their partnership, 15 years of summit-level interaction and five years of strategic partnership. But this is also a time when the organisation is facing strong headwinds as the regional balance of power in the region undergoes a dramatic transformation with the rise of China and the perceived reluctance of the U.S. to live up to its traditional security commitments.
In their passionate account, Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng make a strong case as to why the ASEAN remains a potent force and how it has transformed the region for good. In their rendering, “no other regional organisation has done as much as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to improve the living conditions of a broad swath of humanity.” They make a strong case as to why the ideals of ASEAN can be replicated in other parts of the world and how it can “serve as a beacon of hope for the world.” Yet, they also recognise the challenges of great power politics and how they can derail the project. The authors contend that “all great powers, including America, China, India, Japan, and the EU, have a stake in keeping ASEAN together.” They also outline a number of recommendations to strengthen ASEAN and to develop a sense of ownership of the organisation among the people of the region.
Overall, this book is a sound introduction to the achievements and challenges facing the ASEAN. But the challenges confronting the ASEAN could have been explored more systematically. After all, the problems confronting the region today are unlike any it has faced in the past. The certainty of American security presence allowed the organisation to grow and prosper. Today, that certainty is going and a rising China is quite keen on filling that vacuum by its ‘divide and rule’ policy. Events in recent years have underlined China’s aggressive stance against rivals and U.S. allies in Asia; these tensions are only expected to heighten in the coming years. With its political and economic rise, Beijing has started trying to dictate to its neighbours the boundaries of acceptable behaviour. The South China Sea problem is symptomatic of this change where against the onslaught of the Chinese assertiveness, the regional states have been unable to evolve a cohesive response. The authors mention this, but their idea that only if the major powers can cooperate ASEAN would be back to its old vigour is misplaced.
Indian ‘wave’
From the vantage point of India, the authors make some interesting points. Their discussion of the ‘Indian Wave’ in Southeast Asia is short but instructive as it tells us why India continues to have a salient presence, but still not living up to its potential in the region. At a time when China is challenging regional norms, regional states are reassessing their strategies. India’s role becomes critical in such an evolving balance of power. As Singapore’s elder-statesman Lee Kuan Yew had argued some years ago, India must be “part of the Southeast Asia balance of forces” and “a counterweight [to China] in the Indian Ocean.” India’s ‘Act East’ policy is part of this larger dynamic. As New Delhi has reached out to its partners in Southeast Asia, the regional states have also shown an unprecedented reciprocal interest in Indian foreign-policy priorities.
India has invited leaders of 10 South East Asian countries to attend the 2018 Republic Day celebrations as well as participate at a commemorative summit marking 25th anniversary of India’s ties with the bloc. India’s Act East Policy puts ASEAN at the centre of India’s regional engagement and it is this understanding that is leading New Delhi to push for viewing India’s Northeast as key to linking up with Southeast Asia.
‘A new prism’
Inaugurating the northeast development summit in November, President Ram Nath Kovind said, “If you consider the hundreds and thousands of years of civilisation, far from being a frontier, the Northeast has been at the heart of Indian imagination. And if you take South Asia and Southeast Asia as a continuum — as it has been perceived for most of history — then India is viewing its role in the wider Indo-Pacific through a new prism which is now key to India’s ASEAN outreach. Northeast is right in the middle of it. ... Its geographical location makes it the obvious gateway to India, linking the vast economies of the Indian subcontinent and of today’s ASEAN countries.”
Mahbubani and Sng make a strong case for the ASEAN as a “catalyst for peace,” even suggesting that the organisation be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. But the real challenges to the organisation are only now beginning to emerge. How ASEAN navigates the great power rivalry in the coming decade will perhaps be crucial in deciding if it indeed is the inspiring organisation that the authors make it out to be.
The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace ; Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng, Oxford University Press, ₹750.
