How do trends spread? Through the process of trend diffusion, says William Higham in ‘ The Next Big Thing ’ (www.vivagroupindia.com). In scientific usage, diffusion is the process whereby liquids or gases intermingle and move from an area of high concentration to an area of lower concentration, he explains. Likewise, “when people who have adopted trends mingle with those who have not, the trends move from a small concentrated group to a broader mainstream.”
At the start of the process are the innovators, the very first people to adopt a new behaviour or attitude. “Professional innovators range from filmmakers to product designers. Amateur innovators are those individuals who enjoy creating for its own sake outside of their working lives.”
Innovators are generally individualistic, are unafraid of the negative opinions of others, enjoy novelty and are less afraid of uncertainty, the author describes. “They may be naturally curious, so try something new just to see what it is like. They may get bored easily, so seek a rapid turnover of new experiences or products; they may simply have a natural aversion to the status quo; or they might like the status that comes with trend creation.”
Next in the hierarchy are the early adopters, who share many traits with innovators. However, the early adopters may not always be driven by curiosity or novelty. “They might have the money to try new things or the contacts to obtain them gratis. For instance, the rich or those within the technology industries will be the first to obtain technology products.”
Early adopters may be the very young or the very old, because they have the time to try something new, which may take many hours to practise or understand. Or, they may simply have a greater need for a new product or service than anyone else, says Higham. “For instance, those who are busy are likely to trial a time-saving product before those who are not.”
Diffusion then reaches the mainstream, which is divided into the early and the late stages. Early mainstream adopters pick up a trend before the majority of consumers do, and they are the individuals whom the late mainstream turns to for advice on new products or services. “In any market, only a few friendship groups will include an early adopter, but the vast majority of them will include at least one member of the early mainstream.”
Since the early mainstream takes a practical approach to innovations, and therefore typically deliberates for a long time before deciding whether to adopt a trend, the transition from early adopters to this stage can be a difficult one, the author observes. “Once a trend reaches them, it can offer genuine strategic opportunities.”
Late mainstream consumers, who make up the majority in any market, prefer to feel completely comfortable with and certain about an innovation before adopting it, says Higham. “The group is heavily influenced by media, societal and peer pressure. The gap between adoption by the early and late mainstream can be lengthy.”
Last in the list are the laggards, the traditionalist consumers who are the least interested in change and the most risk-averse, and to whom many trends never reach, as the book outlines. For example, “there are still many in even the most developed territories who do not have access to the Internet… Over 50,000 Britons still watch black-and-white television.”
Looking at alternatives approaches to the way trends spread – such as trickle-down (moving down through society from one level to another); innovation diffusion (that is, trickling ‘through’ a society or community rather than ‘down’ it); networks and trendsetters (with the spread occurring through the interaction of all the members of a network) – the author proposes ‘multi-driver diffusion’ as a good approach for a trend marketer. That can be an inclusive, holistic approach, taking the best from each theory, he argues.
Recommended addition to the trend-watchers’ shelf.
