Special Correspondent

The forecast does not augur well for central and northern India

NEW DELHI: There is some bad news on the monsoon front. According to latest indications, though it could revive in a week, the current may be weak, bringing rains mainly to the peninsular region.

National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) spokesman Akhilesh Gupta told The Hindu that according to latest signals, there was a possibility of revival of monsoon activities from the Arabian Sea side from sometime around June 20 but the fresh pulse may be weak.

"The speed of the monsoon current should be about 80 km per hour for it to be strong. But indications are that the speed would be only between 35 and 50 km per hour." The forecast does not augur well for the Central and Northern India.

Going by the normal dates, monsoon should arrive in Nagpur on June 10, Bhopal on June 13, Varanasi on June 15, Allahabad on June 17, Lucknow on June 18, and Jaipur on June 25.

But with the monsoon going into a lull phase from June 8 and with the new pulse on the horizon also likely to be weak, all these places may have to wait for some more days before they get their rains.

Poor first phase

In the southern region also, though most of the areas were covered, the quantum of rain was not up to the expectations in several parts in the first phase because of a low-pressure area in the Arabian Sea. In Karnataka, for instance, while the rainfall was good in south interior parts, it was not so in north interior parts.

Four districts - Bagalkote, Gadag, Koppal and Raichur recorded deficient rains.

In Andhra Pradesh, almost all districts recorded deficient rains. In Maharashtra, only the Konkan region had good rains. Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha regions experienced below normal rains.

Asked about Delhi, Dr. Gupta, said: "as per present indications, monsoon may not arrive in the city on the scheduled date of June 29. But there is still time. A fortnight is a long time in meteorology. Anything could happen by then.''