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With just a little over a month to go for the Oscars, the odds seem to favour Leonardo DiCaprio for his portrayal of Hugh Glass, the 19th century fur-trapper who survived a bear attack, in magic-maker Alejandro González Iñárritu’s The Revenant . Leo is likely to finally bag the Best Actor prize for his sixth Oscar nomination, because he has ticked all the requried checkboxes (as far as predictable trends show in the history of the Academy):
1. Mathematics of most unrewarded nominations. Though it sounds like DiCaprio has been nominated five times before and hasn’t won, one of his nominations was as a producer for Best Picture ( The Wolf of Wall Street two years ago) and another was for a Supporting Role ( What’s Eating Gilbert Grape , 1993). That leaves us with just three times he was snubbed for the Best Actor prize — The Wolf of Wall Street recently (that many felt he should have won despite Matthew McConaughey’s deserving win for Dallas Buyers Club ), Blood Diamond almost a decade ago (when he had no real chance) and for the 2004-Scorsese biopic The Aviator (which he lost to another actor in a closely fought biopic race: Jamie Foxx in Ray ). The Academy has, in the past, compensated actors with most unrewarded nominations in fray even for a much weaker role — when, for example, it rewarded a Denzel Washington for Training Day . And this isn’t a weak role.
2. Show over restraint. With Eddie Redmayne nominated this year for The Danish Girl , winning only last year for The Theory of Everything , the Best Actor competition is mostly down to this duel: Michael Fassbender’s class act as Steve Jobs versus DiCaprio’s showy, spirited Hugh Glass. The other two nominees are Matt Damon for The Martian (a choice that made everyone giggle) and Bryan Cranston’s first-ever Oscar nomination for Trumbo (a nomination that’s more an acknowledgement of a fine performance than a real contender). Given that the Academy members have often preferred show to restraint (last year’s decision to give it to Eddie Redmayne over Michael Keaton, for example), it wouldn’t be a surprise if it happens again.
While the Academy doesn’t like it when the actors try too hard (Like Tom Hanks in Castaway or DiCaprio himself in The Wolf of Wall Street ), DiCaprio’s turn this time around is equal parts internalised (he owns the silent moments) and physical acting (the loud grunting and groaning where the acting needs to show). Glass is probably the most balanced of his performances, in a film he carries and gets to showcase his range in. And it helps to have a few stories circulating — of extreme shoot conditions and Leo having to eat bison liver to add to his acting chops.
3. Race, right and wrong. Steve Jobs in Danny Boyle’s Steve Jobs written by Aaron Sorkin, like Leo’s Jordan Belfort in The Wolf of Wall Street , isn’t really portrayed as a role model… like say, Stephen Hawking last year (in The Theory of Everything ). Hugh Glass isn’t just a white hero. He’s a loving father who adores his native-American son born to a Pawnee woman. With the Oscars facing criticism of being all white this year, the members are likely to be sensitive to race politics and reward the most inclusive and politically correct of characters. Between a father who publicly disowns his daughter and a father who comes back from death to avenge his son’s death, Academy members might prefer the good father.
4. Mad Max Fury Road. What does George Miller’s Fury Road have to do with DiCaprio’s chances to win the Best Actor? Everything. The law of averages is all set to catch up with the much-celebrated Alejandro González Iñárritu (who won three Oscars for Birdman last year). The Revenant might have more nominations than the Mad Max flick, but guess how many awards were won by Miller’s baby? 73. After a 17-per-cent drop in Oscar ratings last year which celebrated indie and arthouse films, we can bet the Academy sent out a memo to ensure that the Awards this year represented the mainstream too. How else do you explain why The Martian was invited to the party? With Mad Max sweeping most categories, the only consolation The Revenant will get is the Best Actor prize.
5. Half a foot in the door. Yes, the Golden Globes aren’t taken seriously. But then, they haven’t always been wrong either. This was not just an ordinary win. When DiCaprio’s name was announced, the fraternity rose to its feet and gave Leo a standing ovation. You could see it in their faces. Everybody loves Leo. They genuinely feel he deserved this. His win was theirs. They did this for Sylvester Stallone too when he picked up the Globe for Best Supporting Actor for Creed . And if they feel as strongly for Leo as they feel for good old Rocky Balboa after all these years, that’s saying quite a lot about the impact Leo has created in half the time. If he does pick up the Best Actor prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards as expected on Saturday, consider it his early dress rehearsal for the Oscars.
6. Finally ugly enough. Good-looking actors have it very tough at the Oscars, as the joke goes. They are never taken seriously as performers. This is something Fassbender might soon realise. DiCaprio, over the years, has worked hard to rid himself of the baggage of good looks by embracing the Dad-bod, gone all out to do roles with the best of directors — from Scorsese to Nolan to Iñárritu— over two decades to break away from the lover-boy legacy of Titanic . In The Revenant , he’s as deglamourised and primitive as he can get. He can’t possibly disfigure and push himself beyond this, physically. The Revenant is a role that is testimony to the extent an actor would go when he’s hungry for the top prize. Truly, his crowning glory.
