Inflation 7.61 pc; more steps likely to check it
New Delhi, May 9 (PTI) Inflation crept up to a nearly four-year high of 7.61 per cent, impelling the government to think of more administrative measures to keep prices down such as goading cement manufacturers to cut rates.
"More administrative steps will be taken as and when necessary," Finance Minister P Chidambaram said on Friday, as inflation rose to a 42-month high in the week ended April 26 on costlier tea, spices, fruits, vegetables and some manufactured products.
It was 7.57 per cent in the week before and 6.01 per cent in the year-ago period. It had last touched a high of 7.76 per cent on November 6, 2004.
The government, which has been rolling out one measure or other almost every week to arrest and ultimately push down inflation, on Monday banned futures trading in four more farm commodities to stop speculation from feeding prices.
"We are in the process of persuading cement companies to roll back prices. If that succeeds, that will also be an administrative step," Chidambaram said, adding that the government's assessment was that inflation was "stable."
While key steel producers have taken the cue and cut prices, cement maker ACC yesterday announced it would freeze prices for 2-3 months, while some others have already cut or are in the process of holding the price-line.
On the impact of the initiatives taken by the government and Reserve Bank on prices, Chidambaram said: "When the steps come together and take effect, there will be moderation... One must have faith that these steps will yield results."
The government has so far announced measures that carry a revenue implication of Rs 6,300 crore to contain inflation, while Reserve Bank has increased the percentage of cash banks should keep in reserve (CRR) to tighten money supply.
Crisil Principal Economist D K Joshi told PTI that a weakening rupee against dollar and rising crude oil prices (hovering near USD 124 a barrel) were playing spoilsport in containing inflation.
With the strengthening of the dollar in the last few weeks, imports have become costlier and it is partly reducing the impact of the reduction in custom duties, he said.
Commodities used by common man, including tea, fruits and vegetables, condiments and spices, cereals, eggs, meat and fish were also dearer during the week.
Among the manufactured products, cement prices went up by 0.2 per cent, aluminium ingots by six per cent and other aluminium materials by four per cent, while iron and steel prices declined by 0.1 per cent.
Former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan, MP, said: "We may have a growth rate of 7.5-8 per cent, I do not care. But inflation has to come down to five per cent... we must be able to take decisions which are hard" to soften demand.
Others, however, suggested a more guarded response.
"There is a little danger of over-reaction. We need to have patience. We are over-reacting to inflation," renowned economist and author Arvind Panagariya said.
In this context, international trade expert Jagdish Bhagwati said a ban on futures trading in some commodities to tame inflation did not make any sense - a view already voiced by Forward Markets Commission Chairman B C Khatua.
Standard & Poor's South and Southeast Asia head R Ravimohan said he expected inflation to moderate to 5-5.5 per cent by the end of December.
"We are as concerned as everyone else. That's why we are taking steps. Every week there is a roll out of some steps or the other. If necessary more steps will be taken," Chidambaram said.