The Hindu : Will Judev episode affect BJP's poll prospects?

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Nov 18, 2003

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National

Will Judev episode affect BJP's poll prospects?

By V. Krishna Ananth

MANDIRHASOD Nov. 17. The visual allegedly suggesting the Union Minister of State, Dilip Singh Judev, receiving wads of currency beamed through television channels had sent the BJP leaders running for cover. The party certainly will not have bargained for this after having launched a concerted campaign against the Chhattisgarh Chief Minister, Ajit Jogi, charging him with corruption. But the "Judev tapes" have hardly had any impact outside Raipur.

A day after the `expose', the village folk here refuse to be swayed by the developments. They have seen the visual on the television or newspapers and heard about the Judev resignation too. But it was business as usual in the teashops around the Food Corporation of India's godown here. "These are the usual games that politicians play during election time," was a common refrain there.

Raipur and the surrounding region have for long been a witness to a culture where politics is a means for self-preservation; this, in turn, has meant that men with political connections have managed to prosper. The formation of Chhattisgarh has also opened up fresh avenues for this nexus to not only widen but also strike deep root. The civil works initiated in the course of constructing the State capital is one such avenue. Pravin Dubey, a civil contractor and a BJP supporter is confident that the Judev tapes will not cause as much harm to the party's prospects as it appears. The issue, he feels, will soon be forgotten. It is another matter that Mr. Dubey too feels that the BJP could have done without this trouble. ``It will put us on the defensive at least in the next couple of days,'' he maintained. Mr. Dubey was also categorical that the charges against Mr. Jogi and the Congress, which seemed to be central to the BJP's strategy for this elections, are not leading the party to victory. ``It was not as if that the BJP was poised to win the elections this time,'' he said.

This indeed explains why the BJP's campaign managers in Arang Assembly constituency, from where the party has been winning the last couple of elections, appear less confident of a victory this time. Their worry is that the Judev episode will mean a lot of explaining to do rather than persisting with the offensive against Mr. Jogi. The BJP's worry in Arang, however, is not just about the Judev episode. Their own MLA, Ganguram Baghel, has crossed over to the Congress. Mr. Baghel is the Congress candidate from Arang. The BJP can make some incremental gains in the region after Vidya Charan Shukla walked out of the fold in 1989 to join the Janata Dal. While the process is not reversed even after Mr. Shukla returned to the Congress in 1991, his marginalisation in recent years seems to have led a substantial section of the base back to the Congress again.

This aspect is reflected in the Raipur Rural Assembly constituency. Tarun Chatterji, who began his stint in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly in 1990 as a protégé of Vidya Charan Shukla (on behalf of the Janata Dal), turned to the BJP soon after that. He won the seat as the BJP nominee in 1993 and 1998 too. This, notwithstanding the pro-Congress wave on both the occasions. He, too, has moved over to the Congress this time. Mr.Chatterjee is known in the region for the goodwill he enjoys among the people. These factors, rather than the Judev episode, that seem to worry the BJP.

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