Sunday, Jul 13, 2003
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By Harish Khare
According to authoritative sources, the Vajpayee Government will formalise this "sorry, no troops" decision when the Cabinet Committee on Security meets on July 14. The External Affairs Minister, Yashwant Sinha, who was to leave for Dhaka tomorrow, has been asked to delay his departure and attend the CCS deliberations. The Government has reached its "no troops" decision despite a clear understanding that the Bush administration will not be pleased. A number of American interlocutors have spelled it out for various Indian officials that the White House would be extremely grateful if India were to agree to send its troops, particularly when the Bush administration was facing growing domestic opposition on the Iraq front. The Vajpayee Government is evidently willing to risk certain American displeasure. The Deputy Prime Minister and Home Minister, L.K. Advani, who appeared to have favoured the troops option during his recent American tour, is now reported to have changed his views. Mr. Advani, too, is against sending troops as is the Defence Minister, George Fernandes. The External Affairs Minister, Mr. Sinha, is known to be ambivalent. The Finance Minister, Jaswant Singh, is reportedly the only senior voice currently favouring the sending of Indian troops to Iraq. The National Security Adviser, Brajesh Mishra, is now understood to be in the "no troops" column. Though the merits and demerits of the troops option have been debated at length, in and out of the Government, what finally settled the issue was the reality that there was no domestic consensus in favour of sending troops to Iraq. Almost all political parties have voiced their opposition to sending troops; even the BJP has voiced its reservations. In the absence of a domestic political consensus, the Prime Minister and his advisers are unwilling to run the risk of Indian troops getting fired at in Iraq. The Vajpayee establishment is very anxious to avoid a repeat of the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) experience in Sri Lanka. "We can spare our forces that kind of divisiveness," notes an authoritative source. In addition, the rub is that India will have to pay for its own troops in Iraq. The estimated cost for India, according to reliable sources, is Rs. 13 crores per annum. "We will be paying, ironically, to get our soldiers shot at," observed a CCS member. What has weakened the case for sending the troops is the fact that the United States has not yet been able to provide any kind of road-map for the future of Iraq. Also, it is understood that on his recent visit to Washington, the Foreign Secretary, Kanwal Sibal, was told that the American forces would stay put in Iraq for at least 30 months. They have been taking quite a few casualties in recent weeks and the going seems to be getting tougher by the week. As of July 8, 76 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq. Although it is argued within official and strategic affairs circles, "let us not minimise the advantages" of obliging the United States and taking what the Americans are fond of calling "a place at the high table," there is an acute realisation that the Government and the ruling party stood to lose politically by sending Indian troops into U.S.-U.K.-occupied Iraq.
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