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By V.S. Sambandan
``There is no doubt about the LTTE's intention is to regain Jaffna'', a military analyst told THE HINDU. Co-incidence or not, when the LTTE suspended talks on Monday, it was exactly three years after it over-ran the vital Elephant Pass military complex on April 21, 2000. Eight years ago, on April 19, the previous attempt at talks failed and fighting resumed. The ``Eelam War III'' ended with the LTTE gaining an upper hand after knocking on the doors of Jaffna in May 2000. They, however, stopped from taking the town militarily, possibly because of the "over-stretched" rebel military resources. Regaining Jaffna, either by war or through peace has been high on the LTTE's agenda since it lost control on December 9, 1995. When it suspended talks on Monday, the LTTE made this point again. Behind the emphasis on resettling displaced persons, lies the rebel demand the Army should "relocate'' from the high security zones (HSZ) in Jaffna. "This is clearly a pressure tactic. They will also demand recognition for the Sea Tigers'', a Tamil political analyst said. While the overall reading here is that the latest position smacks of brinkmanship, military observers do not rule out a return to war. ``Actually, Prabakaran is predictable'' a former Tamil militant was emphatic, asserting: "I do not rule out an Eelam War IV''. "If the Tigers are serious about their latest position, then it is only a matter of time before war resumes'' another defence analyst said. The ceasefire agreement a requires 14-day notice if either wants to pull out of the truce. Jaffna's HSZs were the only issue over which Colombo and the rebels have disagreed publicly. A sub-committee on de-escalation and normalisation broke down after the LTTE unilaterally suspended participation this January, citing the Army's "paranoid'' approach. The ceasefire monitors were also not in favour of any unilateral de-escalation and linked it to rebel disarmament. Rejected it as ''suicidal'', the LTTE said its ``military strength'' was its "main bargaining power'' at the talks. This sensitive issue was then referred to Lt. Gen Satish Nambiar, the former head of the U.N. Peacekeeping Forces in erstwhile Yugoslavia. He was also criticised by the Tigers for adopting a "militaristic approach''. Now, with Lt. Gen.Nambiar expected to visit Sri Lanka again shortly, the possibility of pressure for a softer recommendation is not ruled out. The attempt to swing international opinion is also apparent. "The LTTE wants the international community to stop treating them as terrorists'', Jayadeva Uyangoda, Professor of Political Science, Colombo University, said "During the past few months, there has been an asymmetry in favour of Colombo, which Tigers want redress by political means'', he said. On economic issues, the LTTE complains that on "urgent and immediate existential problems'', "repeated assurances'' had ''proven futile''. On the key issue of attracting foreign aid — which debt-ridden Sri Lanka desperately needs — the Tigers said the present approach "fails'' to examine ``the unique conditions of devastation in the northeast''. Agreeing that there was no "visible progress'' on reconstruction of the north and east, the Tamil political analyst, however, said: "It is true that progress is not there on the reconstruction is not there, but the LTTE's real emphasis is on their military objectives.''
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