The Hindu : Holding the regional front

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Apr 02, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Holding the regional front

By C. Raja Mohan

As expectations of a rapid American victory against Iraq fade, many nations will begin to recalibrate their approaches to the war. But what matters most is the potential rethinking within the Arab and Muslim neighbourhood of Iraq.

The Bush administration's latest warnings to Syria not to boost the regime of Saddam Hussein through military supplies and Iran not to meddle in Iraq reflect the new concerns in Washington at the changing regional dynamics.

While the military theatre of the war is limited to Iraqi territorial space, the political frontlines envelop the entire volatile region around that country.

The U.S., which is fighting a high-stakes war thousands of miles away from its homeland, badly needs to keep its allies in the Muslim world from going wobbly and prevent its adversaries from making a complex situation worse.

The strategy of Iraq is to exploit the mounting anger in the Arab street, and sharpen the contradiction between the regimes supporting the war and the popular sentiment in the region.

"Horizontal escalation" of the war, in a political sense, was always central to Saddam Hussein's strategy in countering the U.S. invasion. Preventing a wider conflict, in turn, is at the top of American diplomatic priorities.

By quickly seizing parts of western Iraq, the U.S. has undermined any effort by Saddam Hussein to draw Israel into the war by lobbing missiles at it. But Washington is nowhere near mollifying the outrage of the Arab masses, and Baghdad is doing its best to take advantage of the situation.

For now the U.S. is holding its regional allies in line and checking its opponents. But if the war drags on, the regional complexities will only grow and generate new vulnerabilities for those governments aligned with Washington.

As the first public hints of a war against Iraq began to surface early last year, most neighbours of the latter were vehemently opposed to it. None of them were convinced that a regime change would come without painful consequences.

It is not that any of the neighbours of Iraq were enamoured of Saddam Hussein. Most of them would be quite happy to see the departure of a leader who brought nothing but war and instability to the region. They were not sure, however, that Saddam Hussein could be moved out easily.

Once it became clear, however, that U.S. was determined to proceed against him many neighbours of Iraq had no choice but support the action. They hoped that the war would end quickly.

With the war now expected to last many weeks, there is an intensification of diplomatic activity by both Washington and Baghdad to manipulate the regional equations.

The smaller Gulf Kingdoms — Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman — are unlikely to rock the boat for the United States. Jordan, with a large population of Palestinians, is holding its peace nervously.

Saudi Arabia, despite its initial reluctance to join the war, has given substantive support to the U.S. military operations, including the movement of American troops into western Iraq, and the coordination of operations from Prince Sultan air base. But the Saudis are twisting uncomfortably.

On the one hand they are reviving their call to Saddam Hussein to go on exile and on the other trying to distance themselves from the United States. A few days ago, Riyadh withdrew the permission for American cruise missiles overfly its air space.

It is Syria, however, that has offered the first real challenge, political and military, to the U.S. by extending "solidarity with the Iraqi people". But it remains to be seen if this is merely a tactical manoeuvre or a serious strategic decision.

While it warns Damascus of dire consequences, Washington might not be entirely averse to dangling some incentives if the former chooses to "embark on a different, more hopeful course," as the U.S. Secretary of State, Colin Powell, put it yesterday.

The U.S. is also reaching out to Turkey, which is being blamed sharply by the former for some of the setbacks in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Turkey might have good reason to rethink its approach as it digests the prospect of a real rupture in its military/political alliance with the United States that has lasted for than five decades.

Managing the contradictions with Iran, too, is critical for U.S. strategy. While the two adversaries share the objective of regime change in Iraq, the U.S. has profound concerns about Iran's intentions to exploit the fog of war as well as the post-war situation in Iraq.

The unfolding diplomatic contest in the Muslim world between Washington and Baghdad is likely to become as important as the struggle for cities of Iraq.

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