The Hindu : Time is of essence

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Wednesday, Apr 02, 2003

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

Time is of essence

By V.R. Raghavan

Wars are easy to start but never easy to terminate. It is easy to determine when a war should begin. Once war starts, two if not more parties to the war, plus many operational imponderables come into play. The most important among them is time. Militaries the world over conduct battles according to the principles of war. These have come down from the times of military philosophers such as Jomini and later Clausewitz. Time does not figure in the list of principles of war in the European and Anglo-Saxon military traditions. It was Sun Tzu, the Chinese military philosopher, who stressed its importance. He advised his King: "Though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays. In all history, there is no history of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare".

Time exerts an inexorable pressure on political and leaders engaged in war. Modern wars are of short duration but impose very high attrition. International opinion and Security Council resolutions can stop wars at a time unsuited to the winning side. Domestic political costs, presidential election schedules, and the inability of the military machine to stay the course of a long war all impact on the time factor. The coalition forces and their leaders are now under time-pressure. George W. Bush and Tony Blair are the most under time-pressure. They will find support for an Iraq war which extends even into double digit weeks, nearly impossible to sustain with their countrymen.

Asked how long the war would last, Gen. Tommy Franks said he did not know and went on to add that no one could know the answer. One can attribute this to the need for being evasive. The overall commander of the coalition forces did himself less than justice by such an answer. What he said amounted to launching a war without a plan or a time-table. That, of course, is not true given the high professional standards of the U.S. military. Gen. Franks was, in fact, admitting the burden of time he is carrying. He is under immense pressure from Washington to win the war and win it fast. The war must be finished and won before the intense summer sets in by May. The aftermath of the war needs to be contained before September, when the U.S. Presidential primaries commence. Time-pressure has led to plans for inducting more U.S. divisions into the war theatre.

The unavailability of Turkish territory, for a military advance on Baghdad from the north, meant Saddam Hussein had only the southern offensive to face. His ability to reinforce forces in the south had increased. Turkey's decision has forced the coalition to make a significant change in plans. It has decided to move the 4th Infantry Division to Iraq through Kuwait, instead of north. With the northern flank under reduced threat, Saddam Hussein promptly pulled his northern divisions back to Kirkuk. He has strengthened the defences in Kirkuk, whose oil wells are of vital importance to him.

Time-pressure is forcing the coalition to abandon plans to liberate other towns and concentrate all its efforts in Baghdad. This requires a greater number of ground troops to fight the battles for Baghdad. Numbers are also needed to hold safe the logistic routes from Kuwait and Basra to Baghdad. The pressures on the British forces invading Basra to get control over it and open the logistic flank are no less.

The prospect of conducting major battles at the end of a long supply chain is a military nightmare. If the territory over which supply routes pass is to be held, defended and fought for against a hostile population, it compounds the burden the military carries. American and British forces have first-rate organisational cohesion, training and commitment to their mission. It is a pleasure to watch their superb equipment and gear. Their fighting doctrines are sound and they are well led in combat. The speed and power of their fire support to ground troops is outstanding. They are, in short, as perfect a fighting force as can be. They are a force unbeatable in a war of manoeuvre. That is however not the war they are being asked to fight. Saddam Hussein has denied them a war of military manoeuvre. His suicide squads will further add to the time-pressure.

Fighting in cities and urban conglomerates is time-consuming, apart from being expensive in casualties. It is not possible to compress time in battles of built-up areas. The U.S. and British armies are well-trained in this form of combat. What they cannot do, despite their superior skills and firepower, is to compress the time factor. Time is going to be an operational necessity which the political leadership of the coalition cannot provide. The Bush-Blair combine and Saddam Hussein are at the opposite ends of a time helix. One is trying to compress it while the other is doing the best to stretch it. The side which manages it better will determine the outcome of the war.

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