The Hindu : GDP growth set to slump to 4.4 p.c.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Saturday, Feb 08, 2003

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GDP growth set to slump to 4.4 p.c.

By Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI FEB. 7. The growth rate of the Indian economy is all set to slump to 4.4 per cent in the current fiscal year which, incidentally, is the first year of the Tenth Plan. This Plan has set a target of 8 per cent growth in every year of its operation, that is, 2002 to 2007.

Data released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) on the basis of advance estimates of national income has projected that the gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to grow only at 4.4 per cent in 2002-03, compared to a growth rate of 5.6 per cent registered in 2001-02.

As was being expected, the low growth is attributed to the 3.1 per cent decline in agriculture growth because of the prevailing drought conditions. This expected negative growth of 3.1 per cent in agriculture, forestry and fishing sector is against a 5.7 per cent positive growth registered last year.

Other sectors are likely to perform better with mining and quarrying likely to register a 4.8 per cent growth against one per cent and manufacturing 6.1 per cent against a low growth of 3.4 per cent last year.

As per the advance estimates, the tertiary sector is also expected to perform better with construction going up by 7.1 per cent in 2002-03 against 3.7 per cent, financing, insurance, real estate and business services by 6.5 per cent against 4.5 and community, social and personal services by 6.4 per cent against 5.6 per cent.

Trade, hotels, transport and communication segment was slightly down at 7.8 per cent against 8.7 per cent in 2001-02. But, electricity, gas and water supply was up at 5.2 per cent against 4.3 per cent.

The advance estimates show that GDP at factor cost at 1993-94 prices (constant prices) could be Rs. 13,20,733 crores against Rs. 12,65,429 crores in 2001-02, showing a growth rate of 4.4 per cent.

The per capita income is estimated to be Rs. 11,014 against Rs. 10,754 with the population of the country expected to be 1.05 billion, up from 1.03 billion last year.

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