The Hindu : 'U.S. may attack Iraq around mid-Feb.'

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Jan 21, 2003

International

International

'U.S. may attack Iraq around mid-Feb.'

By Amit Baruah

NEW DELHI Jan. 20. The United States may attack Iraq around the middle of February given the growing level of military mobilisation in the Persian Gulf, official circles here believe.

While this is bound to remain an "assessment" and subject to change, official circles were of the view that the military build-up pointed in one direction — that the U.S. would go for Iraq and Saddam Hussein, with or without the backing of the United Nations. The arms inspectors are to present their report to the U.N. Security Council on January 27 and it is expected that Washington's final decision will be made known only after this.

There are other issues between India and the U.S. involved here. Clearly, the U.S. is not getting the kind of support it might have expected from "natural ally" India for an American or American-led attack on Iraq. The Indian position that sanctions against Iraq should be lifted as Baghdad complies with U.N. Security Council resolutions is not reflected in Security Council Resolution 1441; a pointer that India's position goes even "beyond" that of countries such as France, Russia and China.

In a separate development, a recent article in the International Herald Tribune argued that the American approach towards Iraq was governed by "post-Saddam energy visions" of controlling that country's estimated reserves of 112 billion barrels of oil. Iraq, Michael Renner of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute pointed out, had known oil reserves second only to Saudi Arabia's 262 billion barrels. "For half a century, the U.S. has made big investments to keep the Gulf region in its geopolitical orbit and maintain America's claim on a preponderant share of the world's oil.

"In Washington's calculus, securing oil supplies has consistently trumped the pursuit of human rights and democracy. This priority is unchanged now that the Bush administration prepares for a more openly imperial role in the region by perhaps invading Iraq...

"Installing a U.S. client regime in Baghdad would give U.S. and British oil companies a good shot at direct access to Iraqi oil for the first time in 30 years — a windfall worth hundreds of billions of dollars," the article claimed.

"Rival oil interests were a crucial behind-the-scenes factor as the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council jockeyed over the wording of a resolution intended to set the parameters for any action against Iraq," Mr. Renner said, pointing out that the French oil company, TotalFinaElf, had cultivated a special relationship with Iraq since the 1970s. "In November, the Security Council adopted Resolution 1441. It is likely that backroom understandings among the Council's major powers about the future of Iraqi oil were part of the political minuet that finally led to unanimous adoption of the resolution," the article said. "The stakes in this manoeuvring involve much more than the future of Iraq... U.S. oil deposits are increasingly depleted, and many other non-OPEC oil fields are beginning to run dry. The bulk of future oil supplies will have to come from the Gulf region," it added, also pointing to the American rift with Saudi Arabia after September 11, 2001.

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