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Change of guard in Maharashtra

BY EFFECTING A change of guard in Maharashtra, at a time when elections to the State Assembly are due in less than a couple of years, the Congress high command has indeed taken a calculated risk. The anointment of Sushil Kumar Shinde as Chief Minister in place of Vilasrao Deshmukh might appear at first sight to be a response to the demand from within the Maharashtra unit of the party rather than another instance of the command mode coming into play. But then the pace at which the process was carried out — the central party observers had several rounds of talks with the party MLAs as well as with the leaders of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) within a couple of days of Mr. Deshmukh being told to step down by the party president, Sonia Gandhi, in New Delhi on January 13 — is sufficient evidence that the factors leading to the change of guard were not merely those confined to the Maharashtra State unit. Instead, it emerges clearly that Mr. Deshmukh had to go only because the high command wanted it that way. Dissidence within the State unit against him is certainly not a development of the past few weeks. Mr. Deshmukh was even forced into convening a special session of the State Assembly a few months ago when a handful of Congress MLAs went so far as to inform the Governor that they were withdrawing support to the Government. Mr. Deshmukh did continue as Chief Minister even after that because he enjoyed the confidence of the party high command at that stage. Now when the party's central command decided otherwise, he had to go.

The command mode was in evidence even in the manner in which Mr. Shinde was made Chief Minister. True that the "election" of Mr. Shinde to replace Mr. Deshmukh did not go through the familiar pattern (established over the years in the Congress) of the central observers obtaining a simple resolution where the legislature party would "authorise" the party high command to name the new leader. This, after all, was how Mr. Deshmukh himself was chosen soon after the State Assembly elections in September 1999. But then, the central observers left no one in doubt, in this instance too, that Mr. Shinde was chosen as the new leader of the Congress Legislature Party only because the high command had so desired. The only hurdle they had to clear before they could complete the process of "electing" Mr. Shinde seemed to be the NCP — the Congress' ally in the coalition Government — and after the high command's emissaries persuaded the NCP to endorse their choice, Mr. Shinde's election as CLP leader was only a formality. It is clear that Mr. Deshmukh (despite having been offered an assignment in the AICC) is unlikely to take his forced exit from the Chief Minister's post without a murmur. There are others in the party's State unit who have already expressed their resentment against the imposition of Mr. Shinde as Chief Minister. But then, such dissent within the party is immaterial as far as Mr. Shinde is concerned as long as he continues to enjoy the confidence of the high command.

Given this reality as well as the years of experience Mr. Shinde has in the political arena, there is indeed a lot of space for him to manoeuvre in the coming months to equip the Congress as a party for the State Assembly elections (as well as the general elections) due in October 2004. Mr. Deshmukh's record in the area of governance had left a lot to be desired and this was among the reasons behind the decision by the Peasants and Worker's Party (one of the allies in the coalition Government) withdrawing its support to the Government some months ago. All these and dissidence against Mr. Deshmukh had left the ruling combine with a slender majority in the State Assembly. The build up of dissatisfaction could have been the reason for the party high command finally pressing the panic button and deciding to replace Mr. Deshmukh at this stage. Mr. Shinde, thus, has a difficult task ahead for he will not only have to deal with detractors within his party but also balance his own party's interests with that of the NCP and, above these, deal with a determined opposition in the shape of the BJP-Shiv Sena combine.

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