Thursday, Jan 02, 2003
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News Analysis
By V.Jayanth
But political parties here expect that the much-awaited Supreme Court judgment in the TANSI land deal case can be a turning point in Tamil Nadu politics. Whichever way it goes, the verdict can have far-reaching consequences for both State and national politics. According to DMK functionaries, the party does not want to ``unnecessarily rock the NDA boat'' at this time and continues to repose ``full faith and confidence'' in the Prime Minister, A. B. Vajpayee, and the Deputy Prime Minister, L. K. Advani. As such, they do not see any immediate need or provocation for the DMK to quit the NDA or sever ties with the BJP at the national level. But there is a feeling that the next reshuffle of the Union Cabinet could create friction between the BJP and the DMK. After the ailing Union Minister, Murasoli Maran, left for the United States for treatment last month, his Industry and Commerce portfolios were given as additional charge to Arun Shourie. Perhaps, the DMK would like at least one of these important subjects entrusted to its nominee. As for the AIADMK, the official line is that ``all options are open'' and there is ``no hurry to talk of alliances when there are no elections in sight''. As the party has taken on the Congress, both at the State and national levels, that avenue, may be closed at least for the next general election. The ruling party here has the option of going it alone or working out an understanding with the BJP. If it aligns with the BJP, the AIADMK, sources say, will want to contest a majority of seats to emerge as a ``key player'' in the post-election scenario. It is in this context that the TANSI case judgment acquires significance. If the Chief Minister, Jayalalithaa, does not get a conviction, the road will be clear for her to make the next moves. Considering that the recent party general council meeting wanted her to play a major role in `national politics' and even projected her as a `future Prime Minister', Ms. Jayalalithaa will have to decide on her next course of action. Her presence at the swearing-in of the Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, was a clear signal from both sides - if at all, it was necessary. The BJP is now commending the Tamil Nadu anti-conversion Act as a `national model' and Gujarat has vowed to put in place similar legislation. The two parties are seen as ``natural allies''. However, except some smaller outfits, all political parties in the State have adopted an anti-AIADMK posture. But the Congress and Left will not coordinate with the DMK, so long as it remains in the BJP-led NDA. The DMK quitting the NDA is the bottom line to build a formidable Opposition line-up in the State. While the DMK will be happy with merely taking an anti-AIADMK line, the rest of the Opposition wants it to be an ``anti-BJP, anti-AIADMK'' front. For that to happen, the DMK must either wait for a provocation or create one by itself to walk out of the NDA. If that happens, there can be no hitch in the AIADMK cementing its ties with the BJP and it will perhaps replace its arch-rival in the NDA. The BJP too would like Ms. Jayalalithaa to emerge unscathed from the TANSI case before it firms up the arrangement.
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