The Hindu : A defining day for India, Pak.

Online edition of India's National Newspaper
Tuesday, Apr 30, 2002

Opinion

Opinion - News Analysis

A defining day for India, Pak.

By K.K. Katyal

It could not have been planned. It is just a coincidence. April 30 has turned out to be a defining day of sorts for the heads of India and Pakistan — the Prime Minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, and Pakistan's President, Pervez Musharraf. Mr. Vajpayee faces tomorrow a crucial vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha, the success or defeat of which would have a bearing on the credibility if not the survival of his Government. The General in Pakistan is conducting a referendum to seek the people's opinion on his plan to stay as President for another five years.

Mr. Vajpayee has tried hard to muster the support of his allies and friends, taking all possible precautions against an adverse verdict. He is confident of weathering the challenge hurled at him by the combined Opposition. In the case of the referendum in Pakistan, the verdict in favour of the General is taken for granted. The only point of interest is the degree of participation by the people — whether the call of the Opposition for a boycott works or whether it is sought to be neutralised with the use of the official machinery as had been done to collect audiences for his rallies in various cities and towns. And it is to be seen whether the ruling establishment manages an overwhelming "yes'' vote or whether the tally is kept at a slightly lower but nonetheless an impressive level for the sake of credibility.

There are marked variations in the contexts in which the two heads face their respective tests. In the case of Mr. Vajpayee, it will be within the democratic framework — through a motion in the Lok Sabha which finds fault with the Government's treatment of the minorities, especially in Gujarat. The referendum in Pakistan is an extra-constitutional device intended to be used by the incumbent head to perpetuate his tenure. Another major difference between the two cases is that Gen. Musharraf assumed power on the strength of a coup in October 1999 ousting the democratically-elected Government (that its popularity rating had gone down is another matter). His rule was later legitimised by the country's Supreme Court on the basis of the "doctrine of necessity''. And it is on the strength of this very principle that the referendum plan was recently held legal.

Mr. Vajpayee's position as Prime Minister did not suffer from the problem of legitimacy, but he and his Government are being taken to task for not making use of the instruments provided by the Constitution in dealing with the abnormal situation in Gujarat.

The gravity of the issues involved in tomorrow's vote apart, the Government and its opponents are going about their job according to the norms of the parliamentary democracy. For instance, the Opposition parties have forged unity of the highest order setting aside personal and ideological differences to indict the Government for its acts of omission on Gujarat. The Prime Minister and others in the Government, on their part, are leaving nothing to chance to keep intact the ruling combine's lead over its opponents. They have a problem with the Telugu Desam, their supporter from outside. While seeking to ensure its continued support, the Government leaders have sought to enlist the backing of others, till recently on the other side of the political fence. Of the BSP, in particular — and with that end in view arrangements for the coalition between the State unit of the BJP and the BSP are being expedited. There may be an element of opportunism in it but it is part of the political game.

The referendum in Pakistan, on the other hand, as already mentioned, has no constitutional status, although Gen. Musharraf is bending over backwards to impart legitimacy to it. The political parties, covering virtually the entire political spectrum, are united in resisting the General's plan. These parties have embarked upon the agitational course, in the face of curbs on political activities. Two days ago they, operating under the banner of Alliance for Restoration of Democracy, held a major rally at Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore to declare that they "did not recognise the referendum as the constitutional way of the election of the President,'' adding that "Gen. Musharraf was at war with all sections of society and to defeat him the Opposition was fully united''. The Supreme Court's verdict holding the referendum legal did not carry conviction with them — "the justice in Pakistan is under detention and the Supreme Court's verdict substantiates this assertion,'' said a prominent Opposition leader.

According to another, "Musharraf had subjugated the judiciary''.

The point of interest now is as to how the two heads will deal with the fall-out of the outcome of tomorrow's developments.

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