The Hindu : CSO puts growth at 5.4 p.c. in 2001-02

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Tuesday, Apr 30, 2002

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CSO puts growth at 5.4 p.c. in 2001-02

MUMBAI APRIL 29. The real gross domestic product (GDP), according to advance estimates of Central Statistical Organisation, is likely to have recovered to 5.4 per cent in 2001-02 from 4 per cent in the previous fiscal, the Reserve Bank of India here said.

This reflected a sharp increase in real GDP originating from agriculture and allied activities by 5.7 per cent from (-) 0.2 per cent and 1.3 per cent recorded in 2000-01 and 1999-2000 respectively, the RBI said in its `Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments in 2001-02' report issued today.

The turnaround in agriculture was mainly on account of production of foodgrains, oilseeds and cotton, it added. The industrial sector, in terms of gross value added, was estimated to have grown at a lower rate of 3.3 per cent in 2001-02 as against 6.2 per cent in 2000-01 and 4.2 per cent in 1999-2000. The industrial slowdown permeated all constituent sub-sectors, particularly the manufacturing sector, which decelerated to 3.3 per cent in 2001-02 from 6.7 per cent in 2000-01.

The growth in mining and quarrying was expected to have slowed down considerably, while electricity, gas and water supply would have shown a moderate deceleration during 2001-02.

Services, on the other hand, were expected to have recorded a higher growth at 6.2 per cent in 2001-02 against 5 per cent in 2000-01, though the pace remains slow in relation to a growth of 9.4 per cent attained in 1999-2000, the RBI said.

The RBI said the relative contribution of services to the real GDP growth has increased over the 1990s and it would have contributed 3.3 per cent to the estimated real GDP growth of 5.4 per cent during 2001-02. The real GDP growth recorded an improvement in the first three quarters of 2001-02, it added.

On agricultural situation, according to the third advance estimates of the Union Ministry of Agriculture, foodgrains production was expected to peak at 211.2 million tonnes in 2001-02 from 195.9 million tonnes in the preceding year. The record foodgrains production was led by rice, wheat, pulses and coarse cereals.

The RBI said the downturn in real GDP originating from industry experienced since the first quarter of 2000-01 continued in 2001-02 although there was a marginal improvement in the growth rate in the third quarter of 2001-02 to 2.9 per cent from 2.2 per cent in Q1 and 2.4 per cent in Q2.

The pronounced deceleration in industrial performance was also reflected in the index of industrial production (IIP), which rose by 2.6 per cent during 2001-02 (April-February) compared with 5.4 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. The manufacturing sector recorded a decelerated growth in all the months of 2001-02 (up to February).

Referring to savings and investment, the RBI said according to quick estimates of CSO, the rate of gross domestic saving improved marginally to 23.4 per cent in 2000-01 from 23.2 per cent recorded a year ago, mainly on account of increases in rate of household and private corporate sector savings.

The RBI said the household sector saving rate moved up to 20.9 per cent in 2000-01 from 20.3 per cent in 1999-2000 reflecting increased holdings of both financial and physical assets. The rate of saving of the private corporate sector also increased to 4.2 per cent in 2000-01 from 3.7 per cent in 1999-2000. The public sector dis-savings deteriorated to 1.7 per cent from 0.9 per cent in 1999-2000 and one per cent in 1998-99, it added.

The investment rate declined to 24 per cent in 2000-01 from 24.3 per cent in 1999-2000. The overall saving-investment gap narrowed to (-) 0.6 per cent of GDP in 2000-01 from (-) 1.1 per cent in 1999-2000. While the public sector saving-investment gap widened to (-) 8.7 per cent of GDP in 2000-01 from (-) 8 per cent recorded in the previous year, the private sector surplus increased to 9.2 per cent from 7.9 per cent over same period.

The final consumption expenditure, which had increased from 75.8 per cent of GDP in 1997-98 to 78.4 per cent in 1999-2000, decreased to 77.4 per cent in 2000-01. This reflected a fall in private final consumption expenditure from 65.6 per cent of GDP in 1999-2000 to 64.2 per cent in 2000-01, it said. The government final consumption expenditure, on the other hand, recorded a steady increase, it added. — PTI

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