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IN THE affairs of a democratic nation, elections are the high point, the ultimate expression of the people's will. In Sri Lanka, the people have emphatically spoken for change, just 14 months after an ambiguous vote that led to political chaos, worsened the chances of peace in the strife-torn island and left the economy crippled.

The victory of the United National Party (UNP)-led United National Front (UNF) in the general election last week was a mandate by a people who had wearied of seven years of rule under the People's Alliance (PA), which started off the blocks with great promise in 1994 but was unable to live up to expectations.

Today, there are similar expectations of the UNP for a magic cure to all the complex problems the country faces. The UNP leader, Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe, has promised a quick end to the war in the northeast through talks with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). He has also promised to undertake an immediate revival of the economy. But it might prove as difficult for Mr. Wickremesinghe, to live up to the hopes the people have reposed in his election-time promises, as it was for the PA.

For one, while voting quite decisively to deny the PA another term in office, the electorate has at the same time also denied the UNP an outright majority in Parliament, giving it 45.6 per cent of the vote and 109 seats, four short of the half-way mark in the 225-member House.

The PA received 37.3 per cent of the vote, nearly seven per cent less than its share in the last election, winning 77 seats. Its potential ally, the JVP, won 16 seats, six more than in 2000, and obtained 9.1 per cent of the vote share. Far short of the required numbers to stake a claim to forming the Government, the PA immediately conceded defeat.

The UNP is expected to make up the shortfall in its numbers with the help of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), which has won five seats, and perhaps consolidate this with outside support from the Tamil National Alliance which has 15 seats, but the new dispensation is bound to be as dependent as the previous one on its allies.

But more importantly, for the first time since the Executive Presidency was introduced in Sri Lanka through the 1978 Constitution promulgated by J. R. Jayewardene, the incumbent of that all-powerful office will have to co-exist with a hostile Parliament, creating a piquant situation.

The leader of the vanquished PA, Ms. Chandrika Kumaratunga, was re-elected as President in 1999. Her term will run till the end of 2005. The animosity between Ms. Kumaratunga and the UNP leader is Sri Lanka's worst-kept secret and the question being asked now is whether the two can cooperate in the interests of the nation or will the country once again descend into chaos as they battle for political supremacy.

At the time of writing, Ms. Kumaratunga had invited Mr. Wickremesinghe ``to discuss measures'' to appoint a Prime Minister and a Cabinet. But it is not clear what role she envisages for herself in the new set-up, or indeed if the UNP is willing to allow her to play any role at all. Much will depend on how the mandate in the just-concluded election is interpreted by the two most important players in this game.

One point of view, advanced by the UNP and many within the PA itself, is that the election results are really a verdict against Ms. Kumaratunga. She campaigned actively for the PA in this election, warning people not to elect the UNP as she would find it difficult to work with it.

And if the people voted against the PA despite knowing this, their message is that she should hand over the running of the Government to the UNP, shed the draconian powers vested in her office and play a ceremonial rather than executive role for the remainder of her term.

On the other hand, the vote could also be interpreted as a mandate to force the country's two main parties to work together. If the voters gave a mandate to the UNP fully aware that the reins of the Government would still be controlled by the President, it could only be in order to enforce a national government that many in Sri Lanka see as the only way to resolve the country's problems.

Part of the reason why the ethnic conflict has become so intractable today is the inability of the ruling and Opposition parties through the years to see eye to eye on proposals to resolve it. In this sense, the mandate can be seen as a verdict not just for a simple change of guard at the palace, but for a change in the very concept of governance.

Whether the island's political leadership has what it takes to do this, is another question.

Certainly, the voters rejected the staple majoritarian-communal rhetoric that the politicians have always resorted to when they perceive themselves to be under siege. This was discovered not just by the PA this time but other hardline parties too. The Sihala Urumaya, a party formed just before the 2000 election advancing an openly chauvinistic line and a military solution to the ethnic conflict, which managed one seat in the last Parliament, sank without a trace this time.

Without doubt the people have made it clear through this election, by voting for the TNA in the Tamil-dominated northeast and the UNP in the Sinhala-Buddhist south, that what they want from the new Government is a quick resolution of the ethnic conflict, not by war but through talks with the LTTE.

This is what both the UNP and the TNA promised. Now, it is up to them to bring the LTTE to the table for negotiations on a political settlement that will end the war without dividing the country.

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