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News Analysis
Coup for peace
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Observers in Koenigswinter were unanimous. What Lakhdar Brahimi had helped achieve was like pulling a rabbit out of a hat. Vaiju Naravane reports.
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THE AGREEMENT signed on Wednesday last in Koenigswinter, near Bonn in Germany, has been described as a ``historic step forward'' for Afghanistan, mired in war and civil strife since the Soviet invasion in December 1979.
And while the 30-odd participants deserve praise for the wisdom they displayed in burying age-old animosities in order to move towards durable peace and stability, the hero of the day was undoubtedly the United Nations Special Representative to Afghanistan and former Algerian Minister, Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, who was able to guide, nudge, prod and push and even occasionally shove the delegates in the right direction.
For many years, Mr. Brahimi struggled in vain to obtain some kind of agreement from the many warlords, factions and tribal groups that make up the incredibly intricate and complex mosaic that is Afghanistan's social and political fabric. After several years of fruitless struggle, he resigned in disgust, saying interference from Afghanistan's neighbours, mainly Pakistan and Iran, had made a mockery of the U.N. peace process. A couple of months ago, after the September 11 attacks, the U.N. Secretary-General, Mr. Kofi Annan, again asked him to re-embark on what seemed an impossible peace mission. Mr. Annan could not have made a better choice.
``We felt we could trust him. The man is large, in every sense of the word - large-hearted and with a keen intellect. He understood the difficulties the delegates were having. He empathised. And yet, he was like a principled father figure, who lovingly yet firmly led his errant children back to the right path,'' one of the delegates told TheHindu Observers in Koenigswinter were unanimous. What Mr. Brahimi had helped achieve was like pulling a rabbit out of a hat.
The other person who impressed with his flexibility, intelligence, and quiet firmness was the slightly built, bearded leader of the Northern Alliance delegation, Mr. Yunus Qanooni. He proved a remarkably skillful negotiator, obtaining something for almost every faction in the Alliance, a diverse, multi-ethnic and religious grouping made up mainly of Tajiks, Uzbeks and Shia Hazaras. Not only did Mr. Qanooni obtain 17 of the 23 ministerial positions in the interim administration, he also won for his group three of the five vice-chairmanships. He also managed to retain the key portfolios of Defence, Foreign Policy and the Interior.
What made the agreement possible was also the realisation that the world, which was taking a renewed interest in Afghanistan after turning away for over a decade, could well look the other way again, once Kandahar had fallen and Osama bin Laden had been captured or killed. It was a now or never situation, and the delegates gathered in Bonn seized what Mr. Abdul Sattar Sirat, the former King's close confidante, described as ``a golden opportunity''. The international community dangled the carrot of massive reconstruction aid while prodding the delegates forward.However, the signing of the agreement does not necessarily mean it is going to work. ``The main question mark is how coherent the Northern Alliance will be,'' Mr. Christophe Jaffrelot, Director of the prestigious French Centre for Research in International Relations (CERI), told TheHindu.
``Will these bosses really collaborate and join hands. Dostum, for instance, may play his own card in the Uzbek area. But if these people do not hold together, then the role of the U.N. may become much more important and the role of Mr. Brahimi may be that of a pro-consul in Kabul, the real strongman because the others are divided. It might also be relevant for him to play that role because the others may not want any other faction leader at the centre. They may themselves put him at the centre. That's the real question mark. If they are divided, the U.N. will be more prominent. The emergence of the younger, more modern technocratic leaders is the most encouraging development. In addition, the speed with which they reached the agreement was impressive - in seven days they tried to convince President Rabbani and then sideline him. The Peshawar Group was able to resist Pakistani pressure. And they interiorised the notion that no ethnic group can really dominate in Afghanistan. That they really have to compromise. Otherwise, the reconstruction of Afghanistan will not be possible. Now the incentives are also important. They will join hands if the financial package is attractive and if they realise that they must remain united to get it,'' Mr. Jaffrelot added.
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