Opinion
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News Analysis
Defying the odds
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Whether the political victory helped her in the legal battles or not, her victory on the legal front is set to boost Ms. Jayalalithaa's political fortunes, writes Suresh Nambath.
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AFTER THE political victory, now a legal victory. For the AIADMK general secretary, Ms. Jayalalithaa, whose political battles have been mixed up with legal battles, one was as important as the other. With the Madras High Court acquitting her in the TANSI and Pleasant Stay Hotel cases, Ms. Jayalalithaa is finally finding the victory in the May Assembly election truly meaningful.
Although her party won the mandate in the election, Ms. Jayalalithaa was unseated as Chief Minister by the Supreme Court in September on account of her electoral disqualification arising out of her conviction in the TANSI case. From then on, until now, Ms. Jayalalithaa was little more than an extra-constitutional authority who might have to go to jail anytime.
The AIADMK leader is at present waiting for the Andipatti byelection to become an MLA and get back in the saddle. Many legal experts felt she could become the Chief Minister straight away, but Ms. Jayalalithaa wanted to be careful: she thought it safer to obtain the immunity offered to sitting members against disqualification arising out of conviction. With other chargesheeted cases against her, this made sense. And, also, she could avoid another round of legal disputes over a second term as Chief Minister without being an MLA.
All this is in sharp contrast to the way she hurriedly got herself sworn in as Chief Minister after the election. At that time, Ms. Jayalalithaa convened a meeting of the AIADMK MLAs the day after the announcement of the results, staked her claim before the Governor, and took oath the same evening. As she herself said then: ``Everything happened in a rush.'' The swearing-in took place even as legal opinion was against an electorally disqualified person assuming Constitutional office.
Now, of course, Ms. Jayalalithaa is more relaxed. This time, legal experts say there is no bar on her becoming the Chief Minister. But, Ms. Jayalalithaa would only say she would take the ``appropriate decision'' at the ``right time.''
Between then and now, Ms. Jayalalithaa has grown in confidence about her ability to tackle political and legal hurdles. Then, she was worried that political opponents would manipulate people and institutions to keep her out of power. Now, she is sure it is only a matter of time before she dons the mantle again. Thus, the hurry then and the relaxed pace now.
Moreover, the Government headed by Mr. O. Paneerselvam is working to her plan. Mr. Paneerselvam keeps a low profile, he takes no decision without her knowledge. And, he can take the responsibility for the unpopular decisions and give her the credit for all the achievements.
When things are going your way, there is less pressure to act in a hurry. So, Ms. Jayalalithaa prefers to wait another couple of months, and get elected, before assuming office again.
Whether the political victory helped her in the legal battles or not, surely her victory on the legal front is set to boost her political fortunes. Now, all her statements about being framed by the previous DMK Government would not sound hollow.
The allies would also find it less problematic as they do not have to deal with a party whose leader is ``tainted'' by corruption. For the same reason, political realignments are possible too.
Although the BJP insists that it would not treat the AIADMK as a potential ally, there would now be far less reasons to reject the overtures of Ms. Jayalalithaa.
The AIADMK had already given enough indications that it would try and avoid a confrontationist approach towards the Centre. From here on, it is but a small step to patch up with the BJP. Both parties, by keeping alive the prospects of an alliance, can also increase their bargaining strength with the present allies. In the eyes of the AIADMK, there is no harm in keeping the options open.
For the DMK, Ms. Jayalalithaa's legal victory is a setback. Apart from having to answer charges of foisting cases for political reasons, the party would now have to deal with a rejuvenated AIADMK.The legal victory, and the possibility of Ms. Jayalalithaa coming back as the Chief Minister in the near future, has set off wild celebrations at all levels in the AIADMK. In some ways, for partymen, the Jayalalithaa-less Government took away the sheen of the electoral victory.
Not surprisingly, partymen, and also officials, feel a sense of disquiet at Ms. Jayalalithaa deciding to wait. Neither the Ministers nor party functionaries consider Mr. Paneerselvam as the boss.
For officials, the problem is more serious as they find it uncomfortable to deal with one de jure Chief Minister and another de facto Chief Minister. Needless to say, those in the Chief Minister's Office, the decision-making centre, are under greater pressure as long as Ms. Jayalalithaa continues to stay out of office while still calling the shots.
Thus, Ms. Jayalalithaa's legal victory could solve the political problems of AIADMK partymen, and the administrative problems of officials. Both partymen and officials are therefore looking forward to Ms. Jayalalithaa returning to the Chair.
The AIADMK leader might have more legal battles on hand. But right now, everyone is looking at the immediate future - Ms. Jayalalithaa firmly ensconced as Chief Minister - and not too far ahead.
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