Can Saudi Arabia cope?

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, NOV. 6. One of the casualties of the current American military campaign against Afghanistan has been the traditional silence in the United States on the internal politics of Saudi Arabia and the sources of support to extremism within the Kingdom.

The U.S. has had no desire to put Saudi Arabia, the world's most important producer of oil and a crucial ally of the United States in the Persian Gulf, to public scrutiny. Until now.

With growing evidence that some recruiting, financing and planning for the September 11 attacks against the United States took place on Saudi soil, the American media is turning a critical spot light on the desert kingdom.

As the U.S. delves deeper into the connections between international terrorist networks and their links within Saudi Arabia, there is a popular American disenchantment with the regime that is finding expression within the U.S. media and the political class.

Meanwhile, Crown Prince Abdullah, who runs the day-to- day affairs of the kingdom, in a rare move has publicly hit back at American media criticism of Saudi policies.

Saudi Arabia is caught in a big fix. It is perceived by many Muslims within and outside the Kingdom as having sold out to the United States. And within the United States there is anger that the Saudis who depend on American protection are not doing enough in this war against international terrorism.

The regime is the principal enemy of Osama bin Laden who has called for its ouster. Osama turned against the Saudi regime when it agreed to host American forces during the Gulf war against Iraq a decade ago. Riyadh in turn has stripped Osama of his Saudi citizenship.

But the popular American frustration with the Saudi reluctance to either confront the sources of Islamic extremism within or enthusiastically back American war against international terrorism is real and growing.

But within the American establishment there is considerable sensitivity to the difficult dilemmas facing the Saudi Kingdom. Per capita incomes have nearly halved in the Kingdom over the last two decades, which has seen a decline in oil revenues and a rapidly growing population. High unemployment and increasing political dissent have degraded political support to the House of Saud which has ruled the kingdom for nearly a century.

Crown Prince Abdullah is reported to have stated publicly that President George Bush had assured him over the telephone that he sharply disagrees with the public criticism of the regime in the United States.

The real concern in the U.S. may not be about the level of present Saudi support for the war against the Taliban, but the long-term stability of the regime. The U.S. establishment is said to be debating the prospects of an Iranian-style Islamic revolution that could overthrow the House of Saud.

The U.S. is acutely conscious of the grave consequences of Islamic extremists of the Osama kind getting control over Saudi Arabia and its vast oil riches. That would transform the geopolitics of the Middle East as well as international energy markets and give a big boost to international terrorism.

Some American analysts see the present war is as much about ensuring the survival of the Saudi regime as it is about eliminating the terrorist networks in Afghanistan. It is also about finding ways to promote much needed internal change in the Kingdom without destabilising it.

Crown Prince Abdullah has often been accused of being anti- American for his strong criticism of U.S. failure to push Israel into a peace settlement with the Palestinians. He has refused to travel to Washington this year despite repeated invitations from the Bush Administration.

Paradoxically, his reputation for maintaining distance from the United States might give Crown Prince Abdullah the much needed political space to manage the current contradictions facing the Kingdom. The U.S. will indeed be praying for his success.

The House of Saud would have counted for nothing but for its extraordinary survival instincts. Through a mixture of accommodation and coercion, flexibility and toughness, the Saudi regime has defied all political odds. If it fails to cope this time, there will be hell to pay all around.

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