U.S. aid to Pakistan

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, SEPT. 21. Weakness sometimes turns out to be an advantage. The more vocal the opposition in Pakistan to the President, Gen. Pervez Musharraf's decision to support U.S. military operations against Afghanistan, the stronger will be the sentiment in Washington to extend all manner of assistance to the beleaguered General.

As Gen. Musharraf begins counting the goodies likely to flow in from Washington, India will warily watch the scale and nature of the proposed package. India will be concerned that Pakistan may be emboldened by the renewed partnership with the U.S. to step up its hostile activity.

India is unlikely to grudge economic and social assistance that will lift Pakistan out of its present morass. But New Delhi would want credible assurances from the U.S. that renewed military assistance to Pakistan will not endanger India's security.

The next few days will show how the Bush administration balances its policies towards Pakistan and India as it puts together an international coalition to defeat the forces of extremism and international terrorism.

As the U.S. prepares to lift sanctions against both countries, imposed after the nuclear tests of May 1998, the potential differentiation in its approach towards India and Pakistan will be monitored here. There may be particular interest in New Delhi that Washington goes beyond the 1998 sanctions and removes the wide range of technology sanctions implemented against it after its first nuclear test in May 1974.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration has moved swiftly towards putting together a set of rewards for Pakistan. There is a deep sense of appreciation in the U.S. of Gen. Musharraf's controversial decision to extend support to American plans at this critical moment. Although Gen. Musharraf had little choice, Washington is thankful to him for acting decisively.

Reports in the U.S. media over the last two days suggest the package could include new loans from the International Monetary Fund, rescheduling of some of Pakistan's huge debt and bilateral economic and military assistance. This is also likely to include economic support to cope with the new inflow of refugees from Afghanistan, following the American threat to retaliate against the Taliban regime.

One new element is said to be the consideration of technical aid to make Pakistan's small nuclear arsenal safe from jehadis. While Islamabad has assured the U.S. that its nuclear arsenal is under effective control, there is concern in Washington that potential state failure and political turmoil could put it in the hands of extremist forces or other states of concern.

India too will be interested in the safety and security of the arsenal and would not want to see any unauthorised use of the weapons against it by rogue elements in Pakistan. U.S. media has speculated about American options in the event of a threat to the weapons.

Some American experts stated that the U.S. might have already ordered increased intelligence-gathering on Pakistan's nuclear arsenal and may have assigned special forces to try and seize the weapons if they are at risk. But an American military action to take out the weapons appears an extreme contingency. Nevertheless, Gen. Musharraf cited on Wednesday the preservation of Pakistan's nuclear assets as one of the justifications for facilitating American operations against Afghanistan.

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