A thaw in the pipeline

Syria and Iraq have made major moves to consolidate the revival of their relations, writes Kesava Menon.

SYRIA AND Iraq, embittered rivals for over two decades, are currently embarked on a serious effort at rapprochement. This is a reflection of their mutual acknowledgement of the need for cooperation, of changed geo-political circumstances and an upsurge of nationalist sentiment in the Arab street. Although an exchange of visits by high-powered Syrian and Iraqi officials in mid-August sparked optimistic speculation, it would appear that the mutual benefits of enhanced cooperation will accrue slowly.

While both the Syrian and the Iraqi regimes subscribe to the Baath ideology, bilateral relations have been strained since the early 1970s on account of doctrinal differences. The rupture became severe following the Iranian revolution of 1979 when Damascus became friendly to the Ayatollahs while Baghdad was hostile. It worsened when Syria became a part of the U.S.-led coalition that ousted Iraq from Kuwait. An end to this hostility has now come about, though the era of friendship and brotherhood that the Arabs constantly talk about is still quite distant.

Trade and economics have been a primary factor in pushing the two countries together. Iraq has very cleverly and effectively used its imports permitted under the oil-for-food programme to win friends. Contracts for food and medicines have been allocated to those countries that are tired of the U.S. policies and methods for the ``containment'' of Iraq. Baghdad has also not hesitated to use the import contracts to punish countries that do not deliver on their promises of support. For example, till last year France used to be awarded a disproportionately large number of contracts. But after France signalled its readiness to support the U.S. administration's ``smart sanctions scheme'', contracts have reportedly been allotted elsewhere.

Trade between Syria and Iraq is currently estimated at about $ 500 millions a year. The oil-for-food programme has been significantly relaxed in that Iraq is no longer restricted to the export of only $ 2 billions worth of oil every six months. It can now sell as much oil as it wants to pay for imports of food, medicines and other humanitarian goods. So Syria's share is relatively marginal and the two countries hope to double their trade within a short period. They signed a free trade agreement this February.

Iraq has conferred another huge benefit on Syria. An estimated 150,000 barrels a day of Iraqi crude is being pumped through the old existing pipeline between Kirkuk (Iraq) and Banias. The availability of this virtually free oil enables Syria to export almost all of its own oil production. Now the two countries are exploring the possibility of laying down a new oil pipeline. Under these circumstances, Syria has very little incentive to participate in the smart sanctions programme under which the U.S. is proposing that Iraq's neighbours will be compensated for trade losses if they agree to cooperate in closely monitoring Iraqi imports. This compensation is proposed to be paid out of the U.N. escrow account into which Iraq's legal oil revenues are deposited. There is hardly any incentive for Syria to go through the complicated procedures for obtaining compensation from the escrow fund when it is already enjoying the benefits of direct trade with Iraq.

Theoretically, the U.S. could apply a lot of strategic and political pressures on Damascus to make it comply with the smart sanctions scheme. The times are, however, not such that the U.S. has too much leeway to use its muscle against potentially- friendly Arab states. With its partiality for Israel having become ever more blatant as the Palestinian uprising intensifies, the U.S. cannot afford to add fuel to the animosity that the Arab world currently feels towards it.

The Syrian Government might exercise strict control over its people but it is not in a position to join the U.S. in pressuring Iraq at a time when Washington is (through its refusal to rein in Israel) indirectly pressuring the Palestinians.

Syria and Iraq recently made major moves to consolidate the revival of their relations when the former's Prime Minister, Mr. Mohammed Mustafa Mero, visited Baghdad on August 13. Besides discussions on the proposed new pipeline, the two countries also signed a series of economic cooperation agreements and a memorandum of understanding between their respective Foreign Ministries.

The two countries have decided to set up seven new joint pharmaceutical and industrial companies. However, evidence of how the rapprochement between Syria and Iraq was being viewed in the Arab world occurred soon after Mr. Mero's return to Damascus.

Iraq's Vice-President, Taha Yassin Ramadhan, virtually followed Mr. Mero to Damascus for discussions with Syria's President, Mr. Bashar al-Assad. Since Mr. Bashar had been in Kuwait till the day before, his meeting with Mr. Ramadhan immediately set off speculation. The belief was that Syria was not just acting as a mediator between Iraq and Kuwait but that it might have actually been on the verge of pulling off a miraculous reconciliation between the two.

Kuwait immediately squelched the rumours by explaining that any discussions on the Iraq issue that might have come up during Mr. Bashar's visit were routine in nature and Baghdad too dampened expectations by stating that Mr. Ramadhan's visit had been merely a followup to Mr. Mero's. Routine it might be for the moment but the path that Syria has decided to follow is heading in a direction quite different from that in which a recent ally would have liked it to go.

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