Thaksin fate hangs in balance

By Amit Baruah

SINGAPORE, AUG. 1. After the Philippines and Indonesia, it could be time for a change of leadership in Thailand.

If street protests catapulted Ms. Gloria Macapagal- Arroyo to power in Manila in January and Indonesia's Parliament replaced Mr. Abdurrahman Wahid with Ms. Megawati Sukarnoputri last month, the focus is on the judiciary in Thailand.

The fate of Thailand's Prime Minister, Mr. Thaksin Shinwatra, charged with wrongful declaration of his assets, could be decided any day by the country's Constitutional Court.

While Thailand is unlikely to undergo the kind of political troubles seen in the Philippines and Indonesia, a negative judgment for Mr. Thaksin will definitely lead to the appointment of a new Prime Minister.

If the Prime Minister is found guilty, then he will be debarred from holding public office for a five-year period.

Reports from Bangkok stated that as many as 12 out of the 15 judges deciding the Thaksin case have completed their written opinions. As soon as the remaining three opinions are ready, the presiding judge will then call for a vote. A decision has also been reached not to announce the date for the verdict in advance. ``The vote will take place when everyone is ready. The day will not be announced in advance in order to avoid problems,'' one of the judges was quoted as saying.

Thailand's National Counter-Corruption Commission (NCCC) has already indicted Mr. Thaksin and now it is up to the Constitutional Court to take a final view of the indictment.

As the threat of the verdict looms large on Thailand's political scene, several names are doing the rounds for the job of Prime Minister in case Mr. Thaksin is removed from office.

The names include the Finance Minister, Mr. Somkid Jatusripitak, the Interior Minister, Mr. Purachai Piumsombun, and the Health Minister, Mr. Sudarat Keyuraphun. Mr. Somkid, however, has ``ruled'' himself out. ``The person who would replace Mr. Thaksin will not be me, definitely... I believe the Prime Minister will certainly survive the crisis.''

A crucial issue for the Constitutional Court to decide will be the extent of the ban on Mr. Thaksin - whether it should begin in December 2000 when he was indicted - or from 1997 when he filed an incorrect asset declaration statement.

In case the Constitutional Court decides that the disqualification should begin from 1997, Mr. Thaksin, a billionaire telecom tycoon, could return as Prime Minister within 16 months.

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Section  : International
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