Third party monitors closer to reality

By Kesava Menon

MANAMA (BAHRAIN), JULY 26. The specifics of the G-8 proposal to deploy third party monitors to observe the ceasefire, which exists in theory though not yet in practise, between Israelis and Palestinians have not as yet been worked out. But its likely content is discernible. Israel says it is willing to accept third party monitoring in the form it is likely to take and the Palestinians can claim that they have achieved a major success if external monitors are posted in the territories.

Although a final decision has yet to be announced it seems very likely that the ``third party'' monitors to be deployed will consist essentially, or wholly, of officials from the U.S. State Department or the Central Intelligence Agency. These officials will join a smaller group of CIA officials who are already in the Israel/Palestine territories trying to supervise, or at least report on, compliance with the ceasefire by either side. The terms of the ceasefire were worked out by the CIA chief, Mr. George Tenet and both sides had agreed to the terms. While the degree of violence on a day-to-day basis has definitely come down since the ceasefire, the fact that violent incidents also take place on a daily basis shows that neither side is seriously implementing the agreement. With 10 months of violence behind them, neither side is going to acknowledge that the ceasefire is holding until there is a complete end to the violence.

Israel had initially opposed the deployment of external monitors because, among other objections, they saw it as an infringement on their sovereignty. They do not have the same inhibitions if the monitoring team is made up solely of U.S. officials since they represent Israel's main ally and since they are already engaged in the exercise of moderating between the two sides. The Palestinians would ideally like to have had a European content in the monitoring team. But they already have achieved a political victory with the U.S. joining the European Union in recognising the need for external monitors. Egypt, which has provided the leadership to the wider Arab world in its approach to the conflict, is expected to support this format.

This victory does provide the Palestinian Authority President, Mr. Yasser Arafat with the political space from within which he can call for an end to the uprising. The Palestinians had maintained that they would stop their attacks only if two conditions were fulfilled and external monitoring was only one of them. They would not stop, the Palestinians have warned, until there was a complete end to construction activity in or related to Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The situation in respect of the second condition is hazy since a part of the Israeli Government has said that construction has been stopped while another part insists that Israel has the right to cater to ``natural growth''. In any case, Mr. Arafat can point out to his people that the U.S. administration has expressed itself in favour of a complete freeze in construction once a ceasefire comes into real effect. The arrangements worked out by the international committee headed by the former U.S. Senator, Mr. George Mitchell also provides for an end to construction. Neither side has wholly committed itself to holding the ceasefire pending the deployment of the monitoring arrangements. But there are some signs that Mr. Arafat has begun to move in that direction.

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Section  : International
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