Thunder in the mountains

With political chaos rocking Nepal, the new monarch, King Gyanendra, has his task cut out, writes Atul Aneja.

THE JUNE 1 killing of almost the entire royal family, which has triggered shock, anger, confusion and grief, has left Nepal at the crossroads. The new monarch, King Gyanendra, known to be assertive and decisive, could begin to play a more influential role in the nation's politics, possibly within the framework of the existing multi-party system.

Despite the prominence given to the Prime Minister and the elected Government, the king has traditionally enjoyed great influence over Nepal's military and the police. It will not be surprising if King Gyanendra exercises his clout over these institutions, though the man on the street, after rejecting panchayati raj which had given absolute powers to the monarch, is in no mood to tolerate a new round of authoritarianism.

While the emotionally surcharged atmosphere in the streets has been against the new king, the brunt of the protests are directed at his son, Prince Paras, who is seen as a spoilt and ill- tempered youngster.

King Gyanendra, however, has apparently begun to consolidate his hold on the throne. For instance, he has been promised support by all the mainstream political parties after he declared his commitment to uphold constitutional monarchy and the multi-party system.

International reactions have also been favourable, adding to his legitimacy. India, for instance, has promised him complete support, at a delicate moment when the embattled monarch is looking for powerful allies.

King Gyanendra's ascension to the throne comes at a particularly sensitive time when the Nepali state is under great stress. Wracked by internal dissension, the Nepali Congress, led by the Prime Minister, Mr. G.P. Koirala, is finding it hard to govern.

The Koirala faction, which includes Mr. Sushil Koirala, the party's general secretary, is being challenged by the camp of the former Prime Minister, Mr. K.P. Bhattarai. This group includes another former Prime Minister, Mr. Sher Bahadur Deuba, and Mr. Kumbh Bahadur Khadka. Behind the internal wrangling lies an overwhelming demand by the party's younger generation for access to the levers of power.

The Nepali Congress is also being strongly challenged by the main communist party, the CPN (UML). A rash of strikes demanding Mr. Koirala's resignation rocked Nepal after a probe raised questions about the Prime Minister's possible involvement in a controversial aircraft deal recently.

Though the CPN (UML) appears to be in better shape than the Nepali Congress, it is not without its share of feuds. In fact, the CPN (UML) leader, Mr. Mohan Kumar, could have himself become Prime Minister had not his one time ally, Mr. Bamdev Gautam, deserted him at the crunch.

Adding to the problems of the Nepali state is the challenge from the Maoists who, since they launched their armed struggle in 1996, are making major inroads in the countryside. With four districts in mid-western Nepal as their hub, the Maoists, or more formally the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), are now active in 35 of the 75 districts.

Their activities have so far affected two-thirds of Nepal's 24 million population and resulted in around 2,000 deaths. After making gains in the rural areas, the Maoists are now keen to acquire a higher national and international profile.

At least three recent attempts have been made by them to capture an airport, while Government officials have been kidnapped from time to time. The Maoists are led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal or `Prachanda', and Baburam Bhattarai, an architect and a former student of New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University.

There have, however, been recent reports about a rift between the more moderate Bhattarai and `Prachanda', who is believed to a hardliner and the party theoretician.

The Maoists appear to be setting up their own institutions including a Central Military Commission, which was formed in 1998. In terms of tactics, the Maoists take their cue from Peru's ``Shining Path'' guerillas.

They are also reportedly in contact with the ``Revolutionary International Movement'', an affiliate of the American Revolutionary Communist Party. They also have close ties with the People's War Group, which is active in five Indian States and the Maoist Communist Centre (MCC), which is influential in Bihar.

With a core strength of around 2,500, backed by a 10,000-strong militia, the Maoists have drawn on the expertise of ex-Indian and British Army Gurkhas. They operate largely in areas where these retired soldiers reside in substantial numbers.

Despite Mr. Bhattarai's resignation last March as Prime Minister on the issue, the Government in Nepal has been unable to chart a coherent counter strategy. It has a contingency plan of sorts which includes the formation of a 15,000-strong Armed Police Force, trained and equipped for counter-insurgency operations.

While the Government has been keen to activate this plan, reports in the Nepalese media suggest that the late King Birendra was apparently hesitating.

Counter-insurgency specialists, while studying Nepal's existing overall security profile, doubt the capacity of its security forces to crush the guerillas. That would require a force 15 times larger than the adversary's. This would be hard to muster as the total strength of the Nepali security forces, including the police, is only around 110,000.

With political chaos rocking Nepal, King Gyanendra has his task cut out. If he exerts himself to stabilise Nepal, he is likely to find enough international support from powerful neighbours such as India, and possibly the United States.

India, is likely to back him for its own strategic reasons. Nepal continues to remain a buffer between China and India. Hence, political instability in the mountain kingdom can be inimical to India's interests. As it is, India is not too enamoured of the Maoists as it has been a prime target of their verbal attacks.

Of late, Nepal has been used for launching subversive activity, especially in India's Northeast. A strong central authority in Kathmandu which is willing to crackdown on subversive forces will naturally be in India's interest.

``For India, the preservation of the institution of monarchy is vital for it has begun to view it as a stabilising force in Nepal,'' an academic in Kathmandu said.

As for the U.S.' stakes in King Gyanendra, opinion in Kathmandu is divided. Some feel that the American interest is limited - confined to ensuring that Nepal is not used as a base for smuggling narcotics and money-laundering. Others, citing the Bush administration's interest in China, disagree. They say the U.S. could see Nepal as a possible base for Tibetan resistance against China.

Apart from an initial faux pas when King Gyanendra as regent described the slayings in the Narayanhiti palace as an ``accident'', he has made some constructive moves which will help him consolidate. His declaration of commitment to constitutional monarchy and a multiparty system has gone down well with the major political parties.

In response, the ruling Nepali Congress has been effusive in its support for the new monarch. His intention of forming a representative committee in which all the major political parties are involved is seen here as a shrewd move. But the inquiry into the killings is likely to run into rough weather on account of public sentiment.

Since at the street level the late King Dipendra's innocence in the murder of his family has been pre-judged, political parties will find it hard to endorse any findings which go against this mood. As of now, the establishment here appears to be engaged in a Herculean media management exercise to influence people to accept that the late King Dipendra may indeed have been the killer.

As Prince Paras remains the target of public anger, the new monarch has done his bit to keep him out of the limelight. Contrary to the royal practice, King Gyanendra declined to name Prince Paras his successor during his investiture.

The new king is also under some pressure to de-link himself from some of his earlier commercial ventures. According to the Nepalese media, King Gyanendra has a stake in one of the leading five star hotels in Kathmandu, a cigarette factory, a trading company and a tea garden in eastern Nepal. His network with the business establishment has come under public scrutiny, after his elevation as monarch.

In a front page story, Kathmandu Post, a leading English daily, wrote quoting an academic from Tribhuvan University that ``his (the King's) business interests and engagements are no more in conformity with the role as monarch. So it would be in the best interest of the country and his own image to renounce his involvement from business''.

King Gyanendra's involvement in business can be traced to the pre-democracy phase. Under the panchayati raj system, the Army was handled by King Birendra while the other brother, the late Prince Dhirendra, was in charge of the police. It was up to the then Prince Gyanendra to take care of commerce.

His association with Nepal's commercial elite apparently encouraged him to acquire a stake in business. King Gyanendra is also believed to be well acquainted with the Indian Marwari trading community in Nepal. He is also known to be an environmentalist and has successfully run the King Mahendra Trust for Nature Conservation.

After successfully combating street violence which rocked Kathmandu for two days, King Gyanendra may strengthen his hold in the coming days. But his real challenge is far from over and will come from the Maoists.

Preliminary indications are that King Gyanendra may be more assertive against the ultra-left. The arrest of the influential editor, Mr. Yubraj Ghamire, for publishing an article of the Maoist leader, Baburam Bhattarai, is the first major indication that a crackdown against the Maoists maybe in the offing.

It remains to be seen whether he succeeds in this ``battle which may not be fought so much on the streets of Kathmandu but in the jungles and mountains of mid-western Nepal''.

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