Shadow over Macedonia

There are fears that Macedonia is drifting towards a bloody civil war. Vaiju Naravane reports.

THE CLOUDS of war are gathering over Macedonia, the only Balkan state to have avoided hostilities in the decade of strife that has plagued the former Yugoslavia. There are fears that the state, which peacefully broke away from the Yugoslav federation ten years ago, is drifting towards a bloody civil war between the Macedonian majority, mainly Slavs and Christian,s and the large Muslim Albanian minority.

For the past four months Albanian guerrillas holed up in the hills surrounding the northwestern town of Tetvo, which lies close to the border with Serbia and its NATO-controlled province of Kosovo, have waged a relentless war against Macedonia's small army.

With heavy artillery and sniper fire, they have harassed Macedonian soldiers sent to flush them out. Their arms are bought with generous contributions sent by Albanians living in the West and with money earned from their stock in trade: the smuggling of cigarettes and weapons.

This past week has seen an escalation of the fighting with five Macedonian soldiers killed in an ambush by ethnic Albanian rebels. Angry Slavs vented their anger by torching Albanian houses in the southern city of Bitola to which three of the five dead soldiers belonged. Bitola was the scene of riots last April following a similar incident.

On Wednesday, unidentified gunmen fired shots at the office of Macedonia's President, Mr. Boris Trajkovski, in central Skopje. The Prime Minister, Mr. Ljubco Georgievski, exasperated by the hostilities and lack of progress in the negotiations between the Slav and Albanian communities, called for the declaration of a state of war ``in order to achieve peace''.

The rebels say they are not for secession. Their demands concern mainly the use of Albanian, which is not recognised as a state language. They also want an Albanian police force and more jobs for Albanians in Government and the public sector. However, many Macedonians believe that these innocuous-sounding demands are only the first step towards creating ``a state within a state'' before final secession in order to create a Greater Albania.

Albanians in neighbouring Kosovo, from where the rebels in Macedonia receive most of their logistical support, do not hide their desire to establish a sovereign state, which would include Albania, Kosovo and the predominantly Albanian areas of southern Serbia and northwestern Macedonia.

The idea of formally declaring a war situation was first mooted by Mr. Georgievski last May. However, western powers prevailed on him to keep that idea in abeyance and instead broaden his coalition to establish a national unity government. But the recently-formed grand coalition, bringing together parties from the Left and the Right as well as Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, has failed to produce any concrete proposal for ending the conflict.

A declaration of war, which would require the backing of two- thirds of Macedonia's 120-member, multi-ethnic Parliament, would give the Government emergency powers allowing it to call in reservists and launch a full-scale military offensive against the rebels. Albanians parties would oppose it.

The situation is further complicated by a power struggle between the President and Prime Minister, who both belong to the same Slav party. Recently, prompted by the Prime minister, the party criticised the President for his handling of the four-month-old conflict with the Albanian guerrillas which Mr. Trajkovski had described as an ``all out onslaught'' to destroy rebel strongholds.

Security forces have used artillery and helicopter gunships on loan from Ukraine against the rebels and thousands of civilians trapped in the villages but they have made little headway. The party criticised Mr. Trajkovski for not carrying through with a promise to first fight the rebels and then progress to talks.

The Prime Minister represents the hardline elements within the Slav-dominated social democrats and he has been pushing for fresh elections as early as September. It is in Mr. Georgievski's political interest to further radicalise the Slav position.

Analysts say the President is also closely watching political developments. If it appears that the majority of Macedonians has begun to favour stronger action against the rebels, he would not be beyond declaring Parliament deadlocked. He could then unilaterally declare a state of war through presidential decree.

The weekend has, however, raised slender hopes of peace. On Thursday, NATO strongly condemned the killing of the five soldiers and threatened action. The same day the rebels of the National Liberation Army in a surprise move declared a unilateral ceasefire. ``The NLA will refrain from fighting as of midnight June 7, if it is not provoked by the military and police of the Republic of Macedonia.''

Observers say the move is part of a secret deal between the rebels and the Government worked out by European Union diplomats who have played an active role in containing the conflict and restraining Skopje's hand. On Friday, Mr. Trajkovski announced a peace plan, which would allow Albanian guerrillas to lay down arms and leave for Kosovo.

The Trajkovski plan is roughly modelled on a ceasefire agreement worked out between ethnic Albanians and the Serbian Government in the Albanian-dominated regions of Presevo, Medvedea and Bujanovac in southern Serbia. There, NATO officials helped decommission and disarm the rebel fighters and work out the terms of the amnesty. The NATO general secretary, Lord Robertson, welcoming Mr. Trajkovski's plan, said the organisation would be willing to play a similar role in Macedonia.

This is only a beginning. Much will depend on how the stalled negotiations on the rights of the Albanian community will develop.

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