The games politicians play

What happens when President's Rule is lifted? This is the million dollar question in Manipur, says Barun Das Gupta.

FOLLOWING THE imposition of President's Rule in Manipur on June 2, not only the Assembly but also the State's politics is in suspended animation. The Manipur Congress(I), according to the former Chief Minister, Mr. Rishang Keishing, will send a delegation to Delhi to request the party high command to vote against the official motion in the Rajya Sabha on President's Rule.

Mr. Keishing said the MPCC would recommend dissolution of the Assembly and holding of fresh elections. ``How many times have some MLAs defected and redefected? Why should these tainted MLAs be allowed to form yet another Government?'' The Congress(I) itself is a victim of the defection game. Ten of its 11 MLAs defected to the Samata Party; Mr. Keishing is the only one who did not.

Mr. Keishing alleges that the last Assembly elections were ``totally rigged'' with militants having a field day in many constituencies. He says most MLAs do not really enjoy the mandate of the people. He also alleges that Central funds including annual plan allocations have been misused and misappropriated.

Last year's Plan allocation was Rs. 450 crores, but the deficit has already crossed Rs. 400 crores and debt-servicing alone costs the State more than Rs. 200 crores, according to him. ``Things cannot be allowed to drift like this,'' he says. ``We need a fresh mandate of the people.''

Should the Congress(I) decide to oppose its imposition in the Rajya Sabha, the Centre will be left with no other alternative to lifting President's Rule before July 23 when the monsoon session of Parliament begins.

What happens then? The State BJP leader, Mr. R. K. Dorendra Singh, who was itching to become Chief Minister and had staked his claim before the Governor, Mr. Ved Marwah, had to beat a retreat when, faced with a revolt from the Samata Party, the central leaders of the BJP decided that neither party would form a Government.

At the moment, both the BJP and the Samata Party are trying to engineer defections from the MSCP (Chouba) and some other smaller parties. But the Samata Party seems to have lost the race. In a House with an effective strength of 59 members, the BJP already commands the support of 41 MLAs (BJP 26, MSCP-Chouba 10, FPM 2, NCP 2 and Janata Dal-Loken 1), against 13 of the Samata Party. So the BJP can, if it chooses, form a Government on its own without the help of the Samata Party.

The caretaker Chief Minister, Mr. Radhabinod Koijam of the Samata Party, says it and the BJP should come to a clear understanding at the Central and State levels to give Manipur a stable Government. But will the BJP oblige? ``It is a bit too early to say,'' he says. ``I do not know whether the BJP has a hidden agenda. Whether it intends what it says. The local BJP is doing all sorts of things...''

He stresses the need for a Samata-BJP understanding. Otherwise, he says, there will be endless horse-trading. ``All defectors cannot be satisfied with ministerial berths. Those unhappy will defect and about every three or four months there will be a change of Government. This will not be good for a State like Manipur which is suffering from a deep financial crisis.'' In fact, the strength of the BJP rose from eight to 26 because 18 MSCP MLAs defected on May 13, triggering the present crisis.

Mr. Koijam was very critical of the ``highly unethical'' stand of the Speaker, Mr. Sapam Dhananjoy Singh who, he says, is with the BJP and while holding the high office was engaging in party politics and trying to form a Government. The Speaker belongs to the MSCP but it is difficult to say with which faction of the party - Chouba or Nipamacha - his sympathies lie. Mr. Koijam claims he could have ``broken'' the MSCP, but did not do so because that would have been ''unethical``.

There is an internal fight going on between Mr. Chouba Singh and Mr. Nipamacha Singh. After the BJP decided not to try to form a Government in Manipur, Mr. Chouba Singh, Union Minister of State for Food Processing, staked his claim because the MSCP with ten MLAs was the next largest party. The MSCP MLAs are said to be constantly shifting their loyalties between the two leaders which makes them vulnerable to overtures from others.

Considerable speculation is on as to what will happen after President's Rule is revoked. Will there be a BJP-Samata Party agreement on forming a new Government? If the BJP central leadership does not permit its State unit to form a Government, what will the wily and ambitious Mr. Dorendra Singh do? Will he abide by the party high command's decision? Or will he risk quitting the BJP, form a regional party of his own and make a bid for power? Political observers are closely watching his moves.

Some believe that if he leaves the BJP, Mr. Dorendra Singh can only go back to the Congress(I). And Mr. Keishing will be the last man to welcome him. Asked about the possibility, Mr. Keishing evaded a direct answer. ``We are demanding dissolution of the Assembly and fresh elections. We need not go into the question of Mr. Dorendra's possible entry into the Congress(I),'' was his cryptic reply.

But those who are familiar with Manipur's politics and know the fickle party loyalties of the MLAs doubt whether fresh elections can give a clear-cut majority to any party and usher in a ''stable`` Government. Meanwhile, the BJP has claimed it will install a coalition Government on the lines of the NDA in Imphal after President's Rule ends.

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Section  : Opinion
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