Little may change

AFTER EIGHT years of dealing with the Clinton administration, South Asia, India in particular, is perhaps a little apprehensive about what the political change in Washington means in terms of foreign policy and diplomacy. The outgoing team had placed India and South Asia in a different setting from past administrations. The region will have to wait for sometime for the new team to settle down. However, there is likely to be a continuity of interests on Osama bin Laden and Afghanistan, India-Pakistan issues and Sri Lanka. So, India can expect to build on the gains of the last several years, even if there may be a change in style.

Having made it known that ``national interest'' will be the guiding factor in foreign policy, the Bush team can be expected to deal with Pakistan; and perhaps be less vocal on such issues as democracy and governance. After all, Republican administrations prefer not to drag the baggage of democracy and human rights in public, leaving lecturing to the private domains of diplomacy. That is, the Bush administration may be less inclined to hand out ``certificates'', so much sought after in parts of the region during the previous era.

Even if there is the temptation in some quarters to look for ``changes'' or ``tilts'' in American foreign policy towards India or the region itself, the bottomline is that Washington will be calling for dialogue between India and Pakistan generally, and more specifically over the thorny problem of Kashmir.

The incoming President and conservative Republicans have little to no use for the CTBT, not because they subscribe to New Delhi's point of view but for inherent flaws in the treaty itself. That said, it does not mean that Washington will look the other way if either India or Pakistan pushed vigorously with their nuclear and missile programmes.

The Bush administration may be critical of sanctions in a broad sense, but it remains to be seen how soon the punitive measures are relaxed totally for India. In the realm of non-political issues, Washington, under the new dispensation, may take a tougher posture on trade and obligations under the World Trade Organisation given the fact that the Conservatives have strong pro-business credentials.

In pursuing a multi-faceted policy and approach to India, the Bush administration, while viewing favourably New Delhi's democratic credentials, may not hesitate to point out that secularism and religious intolerance do not go hand in hand.

The Clinton administration made some critical references to attacks on minorities in India; the Bush team can be expected to be more strident given the religious conservatives in the incoming set-up.

- S.K.

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