Will Uncle Sam go into a shell?

The Bush Administration foreign policy will be dominated by America's interests and the Republican belief that the U.S. should not be the world's policeman, says SRIDHAR KRISHNASWAMI.

FORGET THE campaign rhetoric on foreign policy, be it at the time of the primaries or what was put out in book form at the Republican National Convention. In fact, if there is one thing going for a Bush administration in the realm of foreign and defence affairs, it is that there is little baggage from the campaign trail; and for one very good reason - foreign policy hardly mattered.

To those making the point that Mr. George W. Bush is not quite qualified to deal with foreign and defence policies the question to be posed is whether it matters for a President to be an expert in foreign affairs at all. One does not have to go very far in seeing the kind of ground the present U.S. President, Mr. Bill Clinton covered, be it with respect to the Asia-Pacific, Europe or the Americas. Presidents need solid advisors and the ability to make good judgment calls on foreign policy, based on the inputs from their trusted lieutenents.

The advantage for the President-elect is that though his team may be reminiscent of the Cold War era, it is sure-footed and quite aware of the basic framework of how American foreign policy ought to be pursued. In charge of diplomacy will be a former Joint Chief of Staff. Characterised as a ``thinker'', Gen. Colin Powell may bring with him to Foggy Bottom some of his military lingo, but he is not expected to fumble.

American foreign policy will not be undergoing any drastic changes for Mr. Bush and his advisors are quite aware of what it means to undo the developments of the last eight years. Foreign policy will be dominated by America's interests and the Republican belief that the United States cannot and should not be the world's policeman.

If there was one consistent criticism of the Clinton administration, it was that the U.S. has over-extended itself. The new Secretary of State has already enunciated that the U.S. will be extremely reluctant to get involved overseas, but if it did that would be with overwhelming force.

Very soon in the foreign policy ballgame, the Bush administration will have to come to grips with reality - it is so much easier to throw words on the campaign trail, be it on China, Russia or the National Missile Defence shield. Spewing rhetoric to a hand- picked crowd is a lot easier than sifting through the stakes involved in altering established relationships.

For Gen. Powell, the Secretary of Defence, Mr. Donald Rumsfeld - who has seen four Republican Presidents - and the National Security Advisor, Ms. Condoleezza Rice, the prime task would be managing the challenges of the next four years. The Bush administration has the usual and convenient ``suspects'' in the international system - the Saddam Husseins, the Osama bin Ladens, the Slobodan Milosevics, the Sudans and the Iraqs. All of these came in very handy to the Clinton administration and in a variety of ways.

But the last eight years have also seen a lot of distance travelled in West Asia, China, North Korea, Russia and to a certain extent Iran. Even in the last days of his Presidency, Mr. Clinton is trying to bring about an accord of sorts between the Israelis and the Palestinians, but the Bush administration is unlikely to pursue this issue with the same intensity. After all, Candidate Bush had maintained that the agenda and the time-frame must be set by the parties involved, and not the U.S.

It will be basically left to the Bush administration whether or not to further pursue the gains on the ground in the last several years. On the one hand the incoming administration is not going to bend over backwards to humour Beijing as the Clinton administration had done, especially in the last four years. What can be expected of the Bush administration is a reversion to the foundations of ``old'' alliances - Japan in East Asia - and a wariness in dealing with North Korea.

But if the Bush administration succumbs to the right wing pro- Taiwan lobby and decides to step up pressure on China, then Beijing will surely respond by giving new headaches to Washington on different fronts, including non-proliferation and trade. A Republican administration that is so indebted to big business will surely think twice before squandering away the mega markets of China.

By the same token, the Bush administration, in spite of what has been dished out in public, will tread very carefully with Russia and Europe over the Balkans. Already responding to some anxious queries on a possible troop pullout from the Balkans, the Bush team has backtracked a bit and said that it was only interested in reviewing the existing policy. But Washington under Mr. Bush will be inclined to tell Europe that it has to assume more responsibility - vis-a-vis personnel and finances - for events taking place in its backyard.

The first indications are that the Bush administration is not on a determined path to undo what has been done; but will rather pursue a foreign policy that will stick to the script of national interest. But this ``national interest'' has already raised many questions in Europe, Russia and China. And a lot more questions will be in store when the game gets going, especially as it relates to some very thorny issues such as the NMD - Mr. Bush is keen on a more robust system that not only protects all of the U.S. but its allies as well.

There will be more continuity in such areas as terrorism where the U.S. will not hesitate to join hands with nations to fight the international scrouge. At the same time, it will be interesting to see the kind of premium the Bush administration places on such principles as democracy - a concept that the previous administration paid a lot of attention to and in which process democracies also stood to gain.

In the world arena a lot of attention will also be there on how the Bush administration deals with the United Nations; and if the last few years are anything to go by, the Clinton administration had a tougher problem dealing with Congress over the U.N. than with the world body itself. If the new administration is keen on not playing the role of global policeman, its response to emerging crises is something which will be carefully watched.

And all this in the context of a constant clamour on Capitol Hill to reassess American contributions to the world body.

In all the talk about the thrusts of a Bush administration's foreign policy, at least two things would have to be borne in mind. First, the new administration's foreign policy is going to take some time to evolve as the different actors would have to be assembled. Gen. Powell could sail through the nomination process and expect speedy confirmation, but what follows after would entirely depend on political realities on Capitol Hill.

Second, and more important, foreign policy is less likely to be a dominant factor in the Bush administration. Both the White House and Congress are setting sights on various domestic policies, many of which are going to be contentious and tough sailing.

Send this article to Friends by E-Mail

Section  : Opinion
Previous : Retreat, reconciliation?
Next     : Little may change