Thaksin party poised for victory

By Amit Baruah

SINGAPORE, JAN. 6. The 18-month-old Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party is expected to win over 200 seats in the general elections held in Thailand today, if unofficial exit poll results prove to be correct. (Agency reports that the ruling party has conceded defeat.)

The incumbent Democrat Party led by the Prime Minister, Mr. Chuan Leekpai, is expected to win around 100 seats in the 500-strong House of Representatives. Hundred seats will be filled through the party list system.

The Thai Rak Thai (TRT), which is not likely to secure a majority by itself, will cobble together a coalition Government along with like-minded parties.

Two issues will, however, continue to dog Thai politics even after the poll results are officially notified - one the impending disqualification of a large number of MPs for vote- buying and the other - the uncertain future of the likely Prime Minister and TRT leader, Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra.

At least two rounds of re-elections are likely in the next 30 days by which time the new House must be constituted. The problem for Mr. Thaksin is also acute - the country's Constitutional Court will decide in the coming weeks whether he is guilty of falsely declaring millions of dollars in assets or not.

Mr. Thaksin was indicted by the country's new and powerful National Counter-Corruption Commission last month, a decision which threw the country's politics into turmoil.

According to Bangkok-based political observers, the new Government is unlikely to be in place before the end of February or even early March given the likely disqualifications and resultant re-elections.

Voter preferences for TRT and Mr. Thaksin personally show that the level of dissatisfaction with the incumbent Democrats was higher than the distrust for Mr. Thaksin for being indicted.

The billionaire telecom tycoon, whose indictment came as a major blow, said after the results of exit polls became known today: ``I am ready to become the country's next Prime Minister now that the people have given me the mandate to govern.''

While Mr. Thaksin can pretend that it's business as usual for him, and he can become the Prime Minister with the correct numbers to back him, the impending decision of the Constitutional Court cannot lend a sense of stability to Thai politics.

It is, perhaps, for the first time in the country's history, which has been chequered by the rule of the Generals, that the Election Commission and the Counter-Corruption Commission have acted with the independence and authority they draw from the 1997 Constitution.

It is also clear that the Thai electorate has been seduced by the slick campaign which Mr. Thaksin ran - promising all things to all people.

Whether he can deliver on promises like creating a 1-million-baht fund for each of the country's 70,000 villages is an open question.

Soon after casting his vote today, Mr. Thaksin told reporters, ``So far, I have been working for the party, now I will work for the country''.

While there is little doubt that the electorate has preferred change, Mr. Thaksin may find that running a country is quite different from running a company.

Mr. Thaksin has been compared with the Italian tycoon, Mr. Silvio Berlusconi, who used money power to work himself into politics and power.

Today's general elections are also seen as setting the standards for subsequent elections.

The conduct of the Election Commission, specifically, will be under scrutiny.

If, as expected, a number of Thai Rak Thai candidates are disqualified, then the political scene in the country can only become more complicated.

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Section  : International
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