Kashmiris had little or no hope from the now-abandoned Foreign Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan scheduled for August 25. It was seen as routine, an island of smiles and handshakes amid a sea of hostilities.
For Kashmiris, hardly anything has come out of India-Pakistan talks since militancy broke out in the Valley in 1989; nothing was expected this time as well. But as the Modi government called off the talks because the Pakistani High Commission invited the separatists for routine consultations before the discussions, something new happened: the routine has been broken.
While many in Kashmir see a lack of political wisdom in calling off the talks because of a customary activity, others see the BJP increasing its Hindu vote bank in Jammu for the upcoming Assembly election by further whipping up its stance against separatism. Few see a shift in Indian policy.
The BJP has its underlying interest in winning as many seats in Jammu as possible since it sees hardly any scope of winning seats in Kashmir. The vote in Jammu has already been divided on communal lines, and the BJP seems to be focussed on whipping up passions to consolidate Hindu votes.
The main opposition party, People’s Democratic Party, has been upset at the suspension of talks and called it a regressive move. Its chief spokesperson, Nayeem Akhter, told The Hindu that while the suspension did not affect the politics in Kashmir directly, it did affect the general mood about politics.
“It does not affect the politics so directly as it affects the mood in Kashmir and how that mood can be moulded by various agencies cannot be predicted,” Mr. Akhter said.
It remains to be seen how the BJP plays up this decision in its campaigning in Jammu and that could inform its standing in the upcoming election, he said adding that the decision had certainly brought the Hurriyat back in business.
“The BJP is banking on the separatist boycott for whatever wins they hope to make in Kashmir and if as last time, fewer than 1,000 votes are polled in Kashmiri constituencies such as Tral and Sopore, the BJP could use the migrant Pandit vote to sweep those seats,” Mr. Akhter said.
Senior Kashmiri Congress leader Saifudin Soz said calling off the talks was a decision that had far more implications at the international level than locally.
“Cancelling the talks was an extreme step and it shows that Mr. Modi does not have a cohesive policy internationally. It was a decision taken on the whims of one man without even consultations with the Foreign Minister,” Mr. Soz said.
The suspension of talks and the External Affairs Ministry’s statement that Kashmir was a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan alone have made the separatist camp more relevant and given it a fresh lease of life.
The chairman of the Hurriyat’s moderate faction, Mirwaiz Umar, in his Friday sermon at the Grand Mosque, delved into the political ramifications of the suspension of talks.
“The Government of India has again shown that they do not want to move forward on Kashmir; they are on the lookout for alibis to keep the status quo,” the Mirwaiz said.
He told The Hindu that the government was trying to remove Kashmiris from any decisions on their fate and that would further alienate Kashmiris.
“It is also a sign for us that we must come together: all Kashmir, across the divides because it affects us all. In an age where people are central to all politics, the Government of India is trying to disempower Kashmiris completely,” he said.
The octogenarian Hurriyat leader, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, who is back from meeting the Pak High Commissioner and again under house arrest, believes that the suspension of talks has no impact on the reality of Kashmir.
“First, nothing happens with these talks,” he said. “But now the Indian Government wants to go for yet another unrealistic idea that Kashmir is an issue between India and Pakistan and Kashmiris have nothing to do with it.”
For Mr. Geelani, there is little difference if a local political party like the National Conference or the People’s Democratic Party and an Indian rightwing political party like the BJP comes to power in Kashmir.
“We are ruled by New Delhi and it doesn’t matter much which parties they choose to carry out their orders here,” he said.
The suspension of talks and political initiatives being taken by the BJP in the State open a window of opportunity for the separatists, who are divided in various camps, to come together but by not seeing the rise of the BJP as any threat, it seems the separatists will remain closed in their respective political cubicles.
“We [separatist groups] all have the same stand that Kashmir should be free from Indian occupation but we differ in our approaches and opinions. We were together for 10 years and now we are all saying the same thing from different places and in different ways,” Mr. Geelani said.
