There is a strong case to be made for the last half an hour of the 2017 Australian Open final being considered the most important period in men’s tennis this year. With Rafael Nadal up 3-1 in the fifth set against Roger Federer, it seemed like he had sunk his teeth into the match and was waiting for its life to drain out. Against Federer, he had finished such matches with a cold relentlessness in the past.
But what happened that Melbourne night was a microcosm of how the rest of the year unfolded. Nadal dropped five straight games, and then went on to lose all three of his matches against Federer convincingly. Such has been the change that the playing dynamic which once favoured the Spaniard across surfaces now appears to have turned on its head.
Nadal’s high, top- and side-spun forehand into Federer’s one-handed backhand doesn’t trouble the Swiss as much as it used to, and in a departure from the past it’s Nadal who is the more anxious of the two. As the ATP World Tour Finals gets underway in London on Sunday, it is this rivalry that will take centre-stage.
The two may not meet at all, for the format, a two-group round-robin league followed by the semifinals and final, can play out in a multitude of ways. But with six of the eight players who made it to the event last year missing – including Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka – Nadal and Federer are the biggest draws.
If either triumphs, he will without doubt be crowned the player of the year. Nadal does have a dodgy knee, which bothered him enough to pull out midway through the Paris Masters. But he is set to play in London and make a tilt at a title that has eluded in eight previous attempts.
RAFAEL NADAL
World No. 1
2017 win-loss record: 67-10 (87%)
Titles: 6 (Monte Carlo, Madrid, Barcelona, Roland Garros, US Open, Beijing)
Runner-up: 4 (Australian Open, Acapulco, Miami, Shanghai)
Strength
This year has seen Nadal’s serve and double-handed backhand at their best. Under the influence of Carlos Moya, Nadal has added more power to his serve and mixed it up well. The backhand, so often used to either buy time or get back into a rally, is being used to finish points.
Weakness
Though Nadal’s forehand has improved from the lows of 2015 and 2016, it is not as lethal as it was in his heyday and he often struggles to dictate the course of points with it. There are also signs that his defence is not as foolproof as before.
Opportunity
The absence of big, powerful servers in his group. Against Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem and David Goffin, Nadal has a combined win-loss record of 17-3.
Threat
His knee. The World No.1 pulled out of the Swiss indoors in Basel with a knee injury and withdrew at the quarterfinal stage from the Paris Masters for the same reason.
KEY STAT: Nadal is the only player in the ATP Top-100 to hold serve more than 50% of the times in games he is down 15-40
ROGER FEDERER
World No. 2
2017 win-loss record: 49-4 (92.4%)
Titles: 7 (Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Halle, Wimbledon, Shanghai, Basel)
Runner-up: 1 (Montreal)
Strength
Federer has used a bigger racquet-head this year. This has helped him do two things: be more consistent on serve and also cut down on the backhand slice – more of a defensive option – and instead hit the topspin drive. The second improvement has worked wonders against those who target his single-hander with spin-loaded shots.
Weakness
Nobody has managed his or her body as well as Federer. Yet, at 36, long-drawn matches are his biggest worry.
Opportunity
Federer’s shot-making in a controlled environment, with the elements playing no part, is brilliant. In his seven season-ender appearances at London’s roofed O2 Arena, Federer has won or reached the final on five occasions. And with the quickening of the courts, he is well placed to unleash first-strike tennis.
Threat
Marin Cilic and Alexander Zverev. The former is capable of playing the brute power game against which Federer has struggled in the past. The latter has beaten Federer in two of their last three matches, though the rivalry is still a fledgling one.
KEY STAT: In the ATP’s new Under Pressure Rating, which takes into account break-points converted and saved, tie-breakers won and deciding sets won, Federer is No. 1
ALEXANDER ZVEREV
World No. 3
2017 win-loss record: 54-20 (73%)
Titles: 5 (Montpellier, Munich, Rome, Washington, Montreal)
Runner-up: 1 (Halle)
Strength
For tall men like Zverev, the backhand is generally the bane. But for Zverev it is his finest stroke. And unlike most big men, he isn’t averse to rallying and particularly enjoys constructing points.
Weakness
His net-play. With such a wingspan, he should cut off most passing angles. But this aspect of his game hasn’t quite kept pace with the all-round development.
Opportunity
From 2016 to 2017, Zverev has shown remarkable progress in most facets of his play – serve, return-points won, break-points saved and movement. He has the chance to improve them further.
Threat
Fitness. His lower-body strength isn’t still up to the mark, and he seems to struggle during long matches. The Australian Open third-rounder against Nadal is a case in point: he looked spent in the final two sets.
KEY STAT: Zverev – at 20, the youngest player in London – has a winning record of 6-5 against Top-10 opposition in 2017
DOMINIC THIEM
World No. 4
2017 win-loss record: 48-25 (65.8%)
Titles: 1 (Rio de Janeiro)
Runner-up: 2 (Madrid, Barcelona)
Strength
Whether in form or not, Thiem is one of most hardworking players on Tour. The court in London and the accompanying atmosphere may not be to his liking, but expect nothing less than a wholesome effort from him.
Weakness
The surface. Thiem is at his best on clay and has been rightly mooted as Nadal’s heir. But he is yet to replicate that elsewhere. He did win a hard-court title and a grass-court tournament last year, but has stagnated in 2017.
Opportunity
Unlike last year, Thiem has managed his season much better. In 2016, the sheer number of matches he played almost resulted in a burnout. Coming into this Tour Finals he seems adequately rested.
Threat
His 2-5 record since the US Open has meant that he has been unable to build momentum. If he can’t reverse the slide and give a good account of himself in London, it could taint an otherwise fine year.
KEY STAT: A 24-5 record on clay was the single biggest contributor in him reaching the World Tour finals
MARIN CILIC
World No. 5
2017 win-loss record: 44-19 (70%)
Titles: 1 (Istanbul)
Runner-up: 2 (Wimbledon, Queen’s)
Strength
A big serve which comes down from a height of 6’6” followed by a blistering forehand are Cilic’s biggest weapons. On fast indoor courts, these grant him tournament-winning capabilities.
Weakness
Agility and movement are not among his strengths. Another of his problems is mustering the required levels of motivation to win on a consistent basis.
Opportunity
For a while Cilic has been seen as a player with a genuine shot at winning tennis’ biggest prizes even in the presence of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray. His path to glory may never get easier than in London although he has been drawn into the tougher of the two groups.
Threats
Cilic has a losing head-to-head record against all three of his group mates; 1-7 against Federer, 1-3 against Zverev and 0-2 against Sock.
KEY STAT: This year, Cilic has hit on an average 11.4 aces per match, the highest among the eight players
GRIGOR DIMITROV
World No. 6
2017 win-loss record: 44-19 (70%)
Titles: 3 (Brisbane, Sofia, Cincinnati)
Runner-up: 1 (Stockholm)
Strength
Dimitrov’s is one of the most rounded games on Tour. He is technically gifted, has the power to compete from the baseline and is also adept at volleying. His transitions from the back of the court towards the net are impressive.
Weakness
Consistency has never been his forte as he has often seemed burdened by the expectations that come with being called ‘Baby Fed’. In spite of having every single stroke necessary, his shot-selection has been found wanting.
Opportunity
Placed alongside Nadal, Goffin and Thiem, Dimitrov should back himself to at least reach the semifinal. This is Bulgarian’s best season ever and he is assured of a year-end Top-10 finish for the first-time in his career. The Tour Finals is a good tournament to make good on many a promise.
Threat
Dimitrov has lost three close matches to Nadal this season. Though he has dealt with the Spaniard’s onslaught on his single-handed backhand better than before, it still needs work.
KEY STAT: In 2017, Dimitrov got off to a tone-setting 16-1 start as he beat three Top-10 players in Brisbane and reached the semifinals at the Australian Open
David Goffin
World No. 8
2017 win-loss: 54-22 (71.1%)
Titles: 2 (Tokyo, Shenzhen)
Runner-up: 2 (Rotterdam, Sofia)
Strength
Persistence. Goffin doesn’t have what it takes to repeatedly beat the best. But he has that incredible quality to maximise whatever he has. Even if there is a slight drop in the level of his opponent, you can bet on Goffin to fully capitalise.
Weakness
At just an inch under six feet, Goffin lacks the clout to intimidate his rivals. His serve speed doesn’t rank high and he tries to cover for the shortcomings with superior footwork and by taking the ball early. Still, a lot of things have to come together for him to have a go at the title.
Opportunity
This is the first time Goffin has made it to the Top-10 and with the Belgian one can be sure that he will do whatever it takes to stay there. After a freak injury at Roland Garros, which also forced him to miss Wimbledon, two titles in the Asian swing leading up to the Tour Finals have given him hope.
Threat
The big-hitters. Though he may not find them in his immediate vicinity – his fellow group members are Nadal, Thiem and Dimitrov – he will definitely face one if he makes it to the last four.
KEY STAT: The title in Shenzhen was Goffin’s first since 2014
JACK SOCK
World No. 9
2017 record: 36-19 (65.5%)
Titles: 3 (Auckland, Delray Beach, Paris)
Runner-up: 0
Strength
It may not be visible to the naked eye, but Sock imparts as many revolutions to the ball as Nadal does. Coupled with the speed with which he hits the forehand, it is one of deadliest strokes in the game.
Weakness
The grind of the tour affects him and the American has struggled with the mental side of his game. As one commentator put it, “He has had a tendency to play to the level of the opponent, rather than taking the proceedings into his own hands.”
Opportunity
He has nothing to lose. Ranked 22 at the start of the Paris Masters which he won, little did he know that he would be among the eight elite players. He had instead lined up a golf session with John Isner at Augusta, Georgia.
Threat
To qualify from his group Sock has to beat two out of Federer, Zverev and Cilic; a challenge he might have fancied anywhere except at one of the most high-profile tournaments in the world.
KEY STAT: After having lost all three of his finals in 2016, Sock is 3-0 in finals this year
