Title contender Germany will come face to face with its ultimate tournament nightmare when it takes on Italy in their Euro 2016 quarterfinal on Saturday.
The world champion has lost every single tournament knockout game to the Italians going back almost half a century but is confident it can end a streak that includes one World Cup final and two semifinals and the Euro 2012 last four.
There are signs that it be Germany’s turn to smile on Saturday, with the 2014 World Cup winner having yet to concede a goal in the tournament.
After topping Group C with two wins and a draw, it quickly disposed of Slovakia 3-0 in the round of 16 with an impressive performance in which its frontline burst into life after three below-par performances.
Gomez at the front
Forward Mario Gomez, initially left on the bench, has now struck once in each of their last two matches and looks set to spearhead their attack again.
“We know that everything will be demanded from us,” said team manager Oliver Bierhoff. “This is a new game, maybe the Italians are even stronger than in 2012 and we have been warned.
“But the game will start from zero for both teams and the past does not interest us.”
Coach Joachim Low will have a full squad to choose from with Jonas Hector having recovered from the flu and captain Bastian Schweinsteiger fully fit after playing only a minor role so far following a long-term injury.
“I feel Bastian is ready now. He belongs to the players that Low can now count on 100 percent,” Bierhoff said.
Antonio Conte’s Italy lack the big names of the past but was among the four teams unbeaten in qualifying for the tournament and has kept its momentum going in France, conceding just one goal in four matches.
Solid defence
The so-called three-man BBC defence, led by Giorgio Chiellini playing alongside Juventus teammates Andrea Barzagli and Leonardo Bonucci, has been key to the Italian success.
“We have the Juve trio who guide us, they’ve not been winning for five years for nothing,” said fellow defender Mattia De Sciglio.
Conte will likely be without midfielder Daniele de Rossi, who picked up a thigh injury in Monday’s 2-0 win over holder Spain. Thiago Motta, his usual replacement, is missing through suspension. That is unlikely to deter the Italians, according to De Sciglio.
“Conte would be on the pitch with us if he could be,” he said. “He has taught us to fight for every inch. Fighting for every ball is our strength as we do not possess superstars.”
Talking tactics
Joachim Low’s Germany and Antonio Conte’s Italy have been the two most tactically cohesive teams of the tournament. They play much like top club sides do – with clear principles, well-drilled positional structure, and collective intuition.
In a general sense, Low’s philosophy is to control the ball, Conte’s to control space. Germany’s system is notated as a 4-2- 3-1. But with players as mobile and intelligent as Toni Kroos, Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller, it’s many things at once. If there’s a defining quality of this German team, it’s the ability to break lines.
This is done with vertical passes fizzed through the middle and quick one-two combinations to release runners into space. When confronted by sides that stay deep and compact, Germany circulates the ball, looking for a lapse in concentration as the defence shuffles from side to side. Against Slovakia, Julian Draxler was instructed to stay wide, dribble and break a line by himself; thus was the second goal born.
Italy will challenge all of this, even without Thiago Motta (suspended) or Daniele de Rossi (injured) at the base of midfield. For, Conte’s 3-5- 2 is built to stretch the opposition. With three central defenders, the side has a numerical superiority at the back; and with two of the three central midfielders splitting to support the wing-backs, Italy also creates overloads out wide. There are now two passages to advance the ball.
If the opponent chooses not to give up the centre, the hard-running wide men carry it forward. If the opponent moves resources to the flanks, the centre-backs find the strikers direct.
The Italians are also especially good without the ball. Their clever, intense pressing of Spain’s centre-backs and defensive midfielder in the round-of- 16 set the tone. With goalkeeper David de Gea kicking long as a consequence, Spain struggled to build through the middle. No side, moreover, is as adept at compressing space or using professional fouls to short-circuit an opponent’s rhythm as the Azzurri.
Toni Kroos vs Eder
Antonio Conte’s obsession with detail is legendary. According to reports in Italy, he spent a lot of time on Toni Kroos during his video-study of Germany. The midfield- general’s tendencies – especially his first out-ball under pressure, to the left – were scouted to find a way of restricting his influence. Eder’s solo goal against Sweden might have been his most visible contribution so far, but Conte values the striker’s industry and tactical understanding of defensive duties at least as much. Eder will drop into the pockets of space Kroos normally controls, setting up an intriguing battle.
(With inputs from S. Ram Mahesh)
