How high do the 2018 Fifa World Cup's upsets — Mexico's win over Germany and Japan's defeat of Colombia — rank in the tournament's history? And which is the World Cup's biggest-ever shock win?
To find out, we compare teams’ Elo ratings , a measure of a team’s true strength (The Elo system adds a weight for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result).
To quantify upsets, the difference in Elo ratings between the contestants of every World Cup match was calculated. About 22.5% of the matches were won by lower-rated teams. Here’s a look at all those matches:
- Japan's defeat of Colombia is the 20th biggest upset in World Cup history (the Elo points difference between the sides was the 20th largest), while Mexico's slaying of Germany slots in at No. 27
- The biggest shock came in 1950, when a hastily assembled team of part-time players from the U.S. beat favourite England, thanks to Haitian-born centre-forward Joe Gaetjens' goal
- Senegal's stunning upset of defending champion France (2002) is the biggest in recent times and ranks third
- The most notable knockout surprises are: Chile over USSR (quarters, 1962, 12th biggest overall) and South Korea over Italy (round-of-16, 2002, 15th)