Defending champion Real Madrid has had a difficult start to its La Liga campaign this season. Ahead of the clash against Atletico Madrid on Saturday night (early Sunday morning IST), Zinedine Zidane’s side finds itself down in third, eight points behind table-topper Barcelona.
Real’s struggles have been mirrored by the dire form of its talisman, Cristiano Ronaldo, in front of goal. The Portuguese forward has found the back of the net just once in seven appearances since returning to the XI after serving out a suspension.
Clearly, all is not well – there were recent stories in the Madrid press that Ronaldo, who was linked with moves to Manchester United and Paris St-Germain last summer, isn’t happy with a new contract offer. He still has three years to run on his current deal, but is allegedly prepared to ask to leave if a better offer isn’t made.
While that might be the grandstanding that is common with contract negotiations these days, it is apparent that something is bothering Ronaldo. His output this season is questionable by any measure, but judged against his incredibly high standards, the paucity of goals is particularly striking.
Fall season
Table 1 shows Ronaldo’s goal-scoring record for Real Madrid. His rate of scoring has been normalised to goals per 90 minutes, to smoothen out substitute appearances.
Ronaldo averaged more than a goal per 90 minutes for five straight seasons between 2010-11 and 2014-15 – moreover, the rates in the season preceding this stretch and the season succeeding it were very nearly a goal per 90. That’s a phenomenal record, which makes his return of 0.14 goals per 90 this season look anaemic.
Table 1 also lists his non-penalty goals. It’s often said that Ronaldo’s numbers are inflated by his penalties. But, as the data show, he’s scored more than 25 non-penalty goals a season six times in a row. Three of those times he’s gone past 30. These are elite statistics, which sit alongside some of the greatest strikers’ best-ever seasons (and many of their tallies included penalties!).
Travails of the shot monster
What seems to be the problem this season? Table 2 lists Ronaldo’s shots per game over the years, and what fraction of those strikes he gets on target.
The table also contains Expected Goals (xG), a relatively new metric which will be explained subsequently, and compares it with his goal tallies in the seasons xG numbers are available for.
In terms of shots per game and shots on target, two things stand out.
Ronaldo has always been a high-volume shooter in his time with Real – a ‘shot monster’. Statistically, a high shot volume (more than 4.5 per game) over a long period tends to correlate well with a high goal output. In this regard, Ronaldo this season hasn’t waned. He is continuing to take shots at his usual rate.
What has fallen, though, is the percentage of these shots on target. While in earlier seasons, about 40 per cent of his shots were on target, it has slipped to 27.5 in 2017-18. It is a smaller sample, since it spans seven games not an entire season, but for Ronaldo to return to goal-scoring ways, this is something he’ll have to address.
Just as pertinent is the comparison of xG and goals. Expected Goals, a measure of the quality of a chance, has been around in the stats community a few years, but it was only this year that Opta, football’s leading statistic provider, mainstreamed it.
Simply put, xG is the likelihood of a shot translating to a goal – an xG of 0.10 for instance means that of 10 shots with a common set of circumstances (location, angle, number of players to beat, etc.), a goal is likely to be scored once. These calculations are based on extensive historical shot data. For a more intuitive sense of it, an absolute sitter – a tap-in from a yard out – would be near 1.0. A speculative header from 30 yards, with eight defenders behind the ball, would be close to 0.
So, over a season, the xG of all shots are added up and matched against the goals scored. The comparison of Ronaldo’s xG and goals scored is instructive. In 2014-15, he outperformed xG 39.31 to 48! Which is to say, his finishing was at such a high level that where he was expected to score 39, he ended up with 48. The next two seasons, he was efficient, his goals keeping pace with xG. But in 2017-18 so far, he has underperformed xG. He could have had five goals by now, but he has just 1.
A little about location
So, Ronaldo’s finishing is off. But where is he shooting from?
Of his 6.9 shots per game this season, 1.7 are from outside the box. This appears a good sign, for it suggests he isn’t simply firing from range. Moreover, 4.7 shots per game are in the penalty area, again encouraging. But just 0.4 are in the 6-yard box, which is a prime location for conversion. It’s his lowest percentage of 6-yard box shots in four seasons (5.79% vs.7.14%, 6.35% and 7.81%).
The Messi comparison
Perhaps what’s most galling for Ronaldo and Real fans is Messi and Barcelona’s success. Messi has already scored 12 times this season, and the jibes of his fans ring a little truer: Ronaldo is a glorified goal-poacher, they say, remarkable athletically and deadly off the ball, but not quite the consummate footballer Messi is.
Indeed, the table of the two superstars’ shots and dribbles per game shows that while Ronaldo has increasingly become a shot-taker to the exclusion of carrying the ball, Messi has quite remarkably managed both. Messi’s 276 goals in 283 games since the 2009-10 season matches up well against Ronaldo’s 286 goals in 272 games in this time.
But these are early days in the season. Despite having 11 goals to make up on Messi, Ronaldo has reportedly wagered his Real Madrid teammates that he will win the Pichichi award at the end of the campaign. Given how competitive the Portuguese sharp-shooter is and the fact that he hasn’t gone off scoring entirely (he has six goals in four Champions League games), it’s a bet not many will be inclined to take.
(Source: whoscored.com, understat.com)
