This World Cup – a competition with a flawed format – will not necessarily be won by a team which dishes out consistent cricket.
Given that there are eight quarterfinal slots from two pools for the 10 Test playing nations in the tournament – two of them happen to be Bangladesh and Zimbabwe – all major teams should sail through.
The team that peaks at the right time will lift the Cup. Everything boils down to three matches; the quarterfinals, the semfinals and the final.
This means a side can play uninspiring cricket for most part of the league stage, still manage to qualify, and then run into form when it matters most – in the knock-out phase.
The group matches should have had greater context and significance. Will intensity, the soul of the game, be absent in some of the games before the last eight stage?
Conditions
Conditions will be different in the two countries of the antipodes. The surfaces in Australia could be livelier, offering more bounce as well. Although slower, the pitches in New Zealand could test a batsman’s footwork more since there might be more movement off the seam.
The two-per-over-bouncer-rule could have a greater impact in Australia where the pacemen could trouble the batsmen with lifting deliveries, particularly in Perth and Brisbane. Even the wicket in Sydney, despite a reputation of being spinner friendly, can be juicy for pacemen on occasions.
The harder surfaces in Australia could enable the ball become rougher quickly, thereby enhancing the possibilities of reverse swing. With two white balls in play, there could be much lesser reverse swing on the softer tracks of New Zealand.
Of course, the pacemen could try bowling cross seam, often getting the ball to land on one side, constantly, to get the ball roughed up quicker.
Four major venues in the competition, the MCG, Adelaide Oval, Auckland’s Eden Park and Westpac Stadium of Wellington, will sport drop-in pitches where the dynamics will be different. These surfaces normally assist the pacemen in the first session but ease out as the day progresses.
The wear and tear of a normal pitch offers spinners increasing purchase as the tournament progresses. There could be much less help for the spinners on drop-in tracks.
The spinners’ chances would also be better in the drier weather and larger grounds in Australia. In the colder New Zealand and on smaller arenas, the spinners could go for runs. The strike that could be a six in New Zealand might end up as a catch in the deep down under.
The dew, it makes things harder for the bowlers from evening onwards, could be a much bigger factor in New Zealand.
If the back-footed shots will be of great value in Australia, front foot would be employed more by the batsmen in New Zealand.
Favourite
Now to the favourite, the dark horse, and India.
Australia starts the tournament as the team expected to win the competition. It’s a versatile side with several match-winners. The Aussies bats deep, have explosive batsmen such as David Warner, Aaron Finch, and Glenn Maxwell.
And the bunch of all-rounders in the side – Shane Watson, James Faulkner, Mitchell Marsh and Maxwell – does add considerable value to the side and saves places.
The Aussies will be worried though on the fitness of Faulkner, its key mutli-dimensional cricketer. He is vital to the side with his equanimity under pressure, massive, calculated hits just when the asking rate climbs and a variety of deliveries at the death including different types of yorkers and slower deliveries. Can he recover in time from a side strain?
And will the recovery of Australia’s captain, Michael Clarke, remain on track? An injury to hamstring can be of the recurring kind. The co-host will need his dynamic, attacking captaincy.
Clarke and Steven Smith lend solidity to the line-up with their technical attributes and a wide range of shots. The smooth-stroking Smith has sizzled all summer.
The Aussie line-up will be particularly dangerous in the Power Plays. Teams will be wary of setting a target to this line-up.
The side has pacemen who can inflict considerable damage. Mitchell Johnson is a game-changer whose speed, bounce and movement can alter the course of a match in a few overs.
Mitchell Starc is another left-armer with the right attributes. He is fast and swings the ball. Pat Cummins is a quick bowler with a telling yorker.
Australia, though, is rather light on spin. Off-spinner Nathan Lyon, a quality bowler who can contain and strike, should have been picked.
This side has an aggressive mind-set, can take the game away from the opposition with dominant cricket but needs to cope with the pressures of being a co-host.
If the side manages to handles the stress of playing at home well, beating Australia will be hard. In fact, very hard.
Dark horse
New Zealand, too, is an in-form side. In Brendon McCullum, the Kiwis possess a dashing batsman who can alter scripts and a top captain. McCullum’s captaincy can be brilliant tactically; his field-placings, often pro-active and attacking, are in sync with the side’s bowling.
He has different strategies in place for different players, is never short of an idea.
The skipper has lifted the spirits in the New Zealand camp. McCullum also has a capable team.
None typifies the new found belief in New Zealand better than Kane Williamson. His balance and timing at the crease have enabled the Kiwi build monuments. He is cool under pressure, creates opportunities with his footwork and has a wide range of strokes.
Ross Taylor, so strokeful and so influential when in mood, brings experience to the line-up. He is a captivating shot-maker. Down the order, Corey Anderson is an explosive striker of the ball.
In Tim Southee and Trent Boult, the team has right-left pace combination with precision, movement and wicket-taking ability. This is a buzzing pace pair, particularly potent with the new ball.
The wily Daniel Vettori will be plying his craft in his last World Cup. His left-arm spin is still tight and batting in the lower order invaluable.
The side has many busy, efficient cricketers who pull their weight. This is a fighting team that can seldom be counted out. The Kiwis might finally overcome the semi-final barrier. After that, who knows?
Like Australia, co-host New Zealand too will have to deal with mounting expectations.
New Zealand, surely, is the Dark Horse.
Team India
Away from the sub-continental tracks, it could be a rough ride for the Indian team.
India may have blundered by leaving out the technically well-equipped Murali Vijay who had batted so well in the Test series down under.
With his pleasing footwork, Vijay can be strokeful as well. This quality right-hander would have lent weight to the top-order. He could have batted through the innings, enabling the stroke-players to bat around him.
Without Vijay, the Indian top-order, where Shikhar Dhawan has been unconvincing with his methods, looks porous.
The side has not settled in on the crucial No. 3, a position manned so capably by Gautam Gambhir in the last World Cup.
If the top-order – the openers and the No. 3 – is not in order, the bowlers could make inroads into the rest of the line-up with two white balls in play.
Rohit Sharma can fire but requires a reliable partner. Much of the Indian prospects hinge on Rohit, Virat Kohli and skipper M.S. Dhoni.
This line-up has a certain vulnerability about it, particularly in conditions where this edition of the World Cup will be staged.
The pace attack has been unconvincing so far down under.
Ishant Sharma’s absence could hurt the side. He may have tested batsmen and created pressure with his line and bounce. Although useful with his slower delivery, Mohit Sharma is not in the same league.
Whether it is Mohammed Shami or Umesh Yadav, the Indian pacemen have been spraying the ball around. Pace alone is not sufficient in days when the batsmen harness the speed on the ball so well. Control, the most important ingredient in any form of the game, has been absent.
Bhuvneshwar Kumar’s swing can be valuable but he has to first put his fitness concerns behind.
To make headway in the competition, the Indian pacemen will have to work as a pack and create stress with accuracy. It will be impossible for Dhoni to set fields for erratic bowling.
The Indians have to bowl in combinations and the spinners will need to operate in harmony with the pacemen. Pace from one end and spin from the other in the middle overs can prevent the batsmen from settling into a rhythm.
R. Ashwin will have to find a consistent line before trying out his variety. Left-arm spinning all-rounder Ravindra Jadeja, if he finds fitness and form, can team up with Ashwin. Playing two spinners represents India’s best chance.
The rather disappointing Indian fielding has to pick itself up. Chances have to be converted.
All things considered, the defending champion may not progress beyond semifinals.
India, though, has played some inspirational cricket in the past when seemingly down in the dumps. Can Dhoni's men surprise the doubters this time around?
