For too long now, New Zealand has seemed resigned to hassling and harrying cricket’s big powers without threatening to be one of them.
On 10 occasions have the Black Caps made at least the semifinals of global tournaments, with no more than one trophy to show for their efforts. It could be argued that a nation of four and half million people has overachieved, getting that far that often in the first place, but it will be little consolation to its cricketers.
In 1992, amidst the euphoric support of home crowds and under the inspirational leadership of Martin Crowe, New Zealand advanced to the semifinals only to be denied by Pakistan. As much as New Zealand stood then, like it does now, for the strength of the collective, one other world-class player with Crowe would not have hurt.
Brendon McCullum’s men now have a gilded opportunity to go where none of their predecessors have. In one-day cricket, at least, this is a squad with more than one outstanding player and an even distribution of talent across departments. At home and on the back of a good run of games, New Zealand has arguably its best chance ever to win a World Cup.
Feeding that optimism has been a run of positive results stretching back to November. A Pakistan team that had just flogged Australia was matched blow for blow in a drawn Test series and defeated 3-2 in the ODIs, all in the UAE. Back home, Sri Lanka was beaten comprehensively in both the one-dayers and the Tests before the arrival of Pakistan, subsequently dispatched 2-0.
“This has been the ideal preparation for us so we have no excuses come the big event,” McCullum said after the second Pakistan game. “It is once-in-a-lifetime for us. We just hope to play the cricket we know we can and produce good results.”
There is a capable, comfortable look to the New Zealand squad. McCullum and Martin Guptill will almost certainly open the innings, followed by Kane Williamson and Ross Taylor. The South African-born Grant Elliott, back after a hiatus, will slot in at five, with the powerful hitting of Corey Anderson and Luke Ronchi available next.
Daniel Vettori, who hadn’t played a game of international cricket for 14 months, returned to the Test team in dramatic fashion, and now alternates with Nathan McCullum for the spinner’s job. New Zealand picked Adam Milne ahead of Matt Henry for the World Cup and it is easy to see why.
Milne is a bowler in the mould of the team’s bowling coach, Shane Bond -- genuinely fast. He bothered the Pakistan batsmen in the UAE, touching the 150kmph mark frequently, and is a hugely exciting prospect at 22. The veteran Kyle Mills, Tim Southee, and the left-armers -- Mitchell McClenaghan and Trent Boult -- are all in contention to occupy the seam-bowling berths.
New Zealand’s cricketers have played nine ODIs already this year, so there is the risk of burn-out or peaking too early (enough sports teams will testify that it is more than just a cliche). But, with six ODI hundreds from New Zealand batsmen in 2015, McCullum would rather worry about his players hitting form prematurely than their being out of sorts.
2. SWOT analysis
Strengths: A balanced, fairly experienced team with the momentum of multiple series wins behind it. Technically sound batsmen in Guptill and Williamson are complemented by the ferocious attacking prowess of McCullum and Taylor. Lower down the order, Ronchi and Anderson offer similar firepower in the concluding stages of an innings. McCullum is one of the most astute captains in international cricket and he will make the most of a diverse bowling attack that has spin, swing, and raw pace in the armoury.
Weaknesses: Not that they’ll face much of it during the World Cup but New Zealand’s batsmen will struggle against good spin bowling. Rangana Herath left them looking clueless in their final Group game at the World T20 in Bangladesh last year, when New Zealand was bowled out for 60. Williamson was the only exception and it is clear that the team is heavily reliant on him. If his runs dry up, the middle-order will look veritably weak.
Opportunities: New Zealand is guaranteed to play at home till the end of the quarterfinals, and could potentially play even its semifinal in Auckland. In conditions other teams will struggle to adapt to, and before a strong crowd, it begins with a head-start.
Threats: The weight of history and the pressure of expectation can become too much to handle. Big games need players with experience of having been in such situations; that is lacking. Fatigue (physical and mental) could also turn out to be a factor, having played almost non-stop since October.
NZ squad list
Brendon McCullum
Style: RH bat & WK
Age: 33
Matches: 240
Runs: 5480
Average: 30.27
Catches: 253
Stumpings: 15
As captain: P41 W20 L17 T1 NR3
Corey Anderson
Style: LH bat, LA medium
Age: 24
Matches: 26
Runs: 687
Average: 36.15
Wickets: 36
Average: 27.97
Trent Boult
Style: LA fast-medium
Age: 25
Matches: 16
Runs: 52
Average: 13
Wickets: 18
Average: 34.94
Grant Elliott
Style: RH bat, RA medium
Age: 35
Matches: 58
Runs: 1299
Average: 34.18
Wickets: 27
Average: 26.03
Martin Guptill
Style: RH bat, RA off-break
Age: 28
Matches: 99
Runs: 3192
Average: 37.11
Wickets: 2
Average: 39
Tom Latham
Style: WK, LH bat
Age: 22
Matches: 26
Runs: 502
Average: 23.90
Catches: 13
Stumpings: 1
Mitchell McClenaghan
Style: LA medium-fast
Age: 28
Matches: 34
Runs: 59
Average: 29.50
Wickets: 66
Average: 24.83
Nathan McCullum
Style: RH bat, RA off-break
Age: 34
Matches: 78
Runs: 1030
Average: 21.02
Wickets: 55
Average: 47.78
Kyle Mills
Style: RA fast-medium
Age: 35
Matches: 170
Runs: 1047
Average: 15.62
Wickets: 240
Average: 27.02
Adam Milne
Style: RA fast
Age: 22
Matches: 16
Runs: 38
Average: 38
Wickets: 14
Average: 42.64
Luke Ronchi
Style: WK, RH bat
Age: 33
Matches: 40
Runs: 912
Average: 35.07
Catches: 56
Stumpings: 5
Tim Southee
Style: RA medium-fast
Age: 26
Matches: 85
Runs: 319
Average: 10.29
Wickets: 116
Average: 30.96
Ross Taylor
Style: RH bat
Age: 30
Matches: 150
Runs: 4913
Average: 41.99
Wickets: 0
Average: -
Daniel Vettori
Style: LH bat, LA spin
Age: 36
Matches: 286
Runs: 2203
Average: 17.21
Wickets: 290
Average: 32.30
Kane Williamson
Style: RH bat, RA off-break
Age: 24
Matches: 65
Runs: 2452
Average: 46.26
Wickets: 24
Average: 34.20
The coach: Mike Hesson took over as New Zealand coach from John Wright in 2012. He backed McCullum for the captaincy rather controversially, but skipper and coach appear to have struck up a fruitful partnership, helped no doubt by their time together at Otago.
At 40, Hesson is relatively young, but he has quietly made a difference to New Zealand.
4. Starwatch:
Kane Williamson: With an aggregate of 753 runs, Williamson averages 75.3 in ODIs since November. He has scored three hundreds in this period, as many as he had in his 54 previous matches. It could have been more had he not fallen twice on 97. He welcomed the new year with a brilliant 242 in the second Test in Wellington as New Zealand recovered from a big first-innings deficit to thrash Sri Lanka.
Williamson has gone about proving -- in case anyone was not convinced -- that he can be a fantastic one-day batsman. New Zealand needs him to hold the batting together, and desperately. His bowling action came under scrutiny last year, and he was banned from sending down his off-spin. The ICC cleared him to bowl again in December after he underwent remedial work.
5. Prediction: Anything less than the final will be a disappointment. Victory would be the ultimate outcome for the romantics -- an underdog that will cease to be one.
6. Fixtures:
February 14, vs Sri Lanka, Christchurch
February 17, vs Scotland, Dunedin
February 20, vs England, Wellington
February 28, vs Australia, Auckland
March 8, vs Afghanistan, Napier
March 13, vs Bangladesh, Hamilton
7. Best performance: Semifinal (1975, 1979, 1992, 1999, 2007, 2011)
