Wikipedia could predict disease outbreaks

November 19, 2014 05:29 pm | Updated October 12, 2016 08:55 pm IST - Washington

Bangalore: 03/01/2010. Kannada Wikipedia senn in the Computer screen in Bangalore 0n 3rd January 2010. Photo : Bhagya Prakash K

Bangalore: 03/01/2010. Kannada Wikipedia senn in the Computer screen in Bangalore 0n 3rd January 2010. Photo : Bhagya Prakash K

Wikipedia page views can predict disease outbreaks, including dengue fever and influenza, around the globe nearly a month before official health advice, according to new research.

Analysing such online trends could help scientists stay one step ahead of outbreaks around the globe, researchers said.

Researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully monitored influenza outbreaks in the US, Poland, Japan and Thailand, dengue fever in Brazil and Thailand, and tuberculosis in China and Thailand.

The team was also able to forecast all but one of these outbreaks (tuberculosis in China) at least 28 days in advance.

The results suggest that people start searching for disease-related information on Wikipedia before they seek medical attention.

The research shows the potential to transfer models across different regions; that is, one can “train” a computer model using public health data in one location and implement the model in another region.

For example, researchers could create models using data from Japan to track and forecast disease in Thailand. This is particularly important for countries that do not offer reliable disease data, researchers said.

“A global disease-forecasting system will change the way we respond to epidemics. In the same way we check the weather each morning, individuals and public health officials can monitor disease incidence and plan for the future based on today’s forecast,” said Dr Sara Del Valle, who carried the study.

The study was published in the journal PLOS Computational Biology.

0 / 0
Sign in to unlock member-only benefits!
  • Access 10 free stories every month
  • Save stories to read later
  • Access to comment on every story
  • Sign-up/manage your newsletter subscriptions with a single click
  • Get notified by email for early access to discounts & offers on our products
Sign in

Comments

Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.

We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of The Hindu and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.