Global coffee production during the 2009-10 crop year may dip below last year’s level of 128.1 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO). A likely dip in production and lower opening stock could weigh heavily on global coffee prices.

If production falls are confirmed, the global coffee exports are also expected to decline this year, it said. According to ICO, the reason for the fall in production is bad weather in top three growing countries - Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia.

The coffee year runs from October to September. One bag contains 60 kg coffee.

ICO Executive Director Nestor Osorio said in a report, “Production falls are expected in Brazil and other important producing countries, where the quality of the coffee crop may be affected by bad weather conditions.”

Production in Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, is estimated to be 39 million tonnes in the 2009-10 season against 45.99 million bags a year ago, he said, adding, “most of the crop has already been harvested here.”

Similarly, output in Vietnam and Colombai, the world’s second and third biggest coffee producers respectively, may also decline because of adverse weather conditions, he added.

According ICO data, these two countries had produced 16 million bags and 8.7 million bags each in the 2008-09 year.

ICO said, however, production is expected to rise in Asia, Africa and Central America.