Russia has always been a mystery to the West, except during the brief period of President Boris Yeltsin when the U.S. felt that its adversary was not as formidable as it was believed to be. The mystery has returned under President Vladimir Putin. Russia has tied up the U.S. in knots not only through geopolitical and economic manoeuvres, but also because of its alleged role in the 2016 American presidential election.
Novel plot
Donald Trump’s presidency hangs in the balance as the meandering investigations take a heavy toll on his White House. This is the first time that Russia has become a crucial player in the U.S.’s internal dynamics. With its intriguing plot, sinister villains and staged fights, Ian Fleming’s From Russia, With Love had anticipated some of the ingredients of this drama.
The first signs of Russian complicity in hacking the emails of Hillary Clinton came when Mr. Trump began to speak of friendly relations with Russia. Ms. Clinton exploited the situation by accusing Russia of meddling in the elections. The situation snowballed into a crisis post-election, as Mr. Trump became the first President to be suspected of having coordinated with a foreign government to manipulate a U.S. election. The fundamental questions are whether he colluded with the Russians and broke the law to obstruct justice to save himself and his supporters, the very charge that former Presidents Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton faced in the impeachment proceedings against them.
The inexorable movement of justice began with the appointment of Robert Mueller, a former chief of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), as Special Counsel by the Justice Department and an investigation by two Congressional committees. Mr. Mueller has constituted a grand jury of Washingtonians with power of subpoena. Mr. Trump, meanwhile, has been sinking into a legal quagmire as he took drastic measures like sacking National Security Adviser Michael Flynn and FBI Director James Comey.
Evidence is mounting that Mr. Trump’s camp colluded with the Russians to gather information about Ms. Clinton. The allegation is that Mr. Trump’s eldest son Donald Trump Jr., his son-in-law Jared Kushner, and his then campaign chairman Paul Manafort met on June 9, 2016, at Trump Tower with Russian attorney Natalia Veselnitskaya and several other Russians. Trump Jr. released some email correspondence in July this year showing that he took the meeting after he was promised it would incriminate Ms. Clinton. Based on his statement, Mr. Manafort became the first Republican to be indicted.
In retaliation, Mr. Trump has alleged that money from Ms. Clinton’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) helped pay for a dossier alleging ties between him and Russia. The details of the charges against the Democratic Party are stranger than fiction. According to a story that was first reported by The Washington Post last month, lawyers representing the Clinton campaign and the DNC hired Fusion GPS to conduct opposition research on Mr. Trump last year. Fusion GPS then hired Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence officer, to act as a private investigator. Mr. Steele compiled an as-yet unverified dossier on Mr. Trump's alleged connections to Russia and possible coordination between his campaign and the Russian government.
Impact on ties
As the Special Prosecutor closes in on the President, U.S.-Russia relations are on a downward spiral. The U.S. sanctions against Russia, tensions in Syria, the threat of military conflict in the Korean Peninsula, and the stalemate over Ukraine are problems that defy solutions. Mr. Trump’s meetings with Mr. Putin in Germany and Vietnam were meant to deal with North Korea, Syria and Ukraine, but there was speculation that the two would have exchanged ideas on the investigation too.
In a speech last month, Mr. Putin deplored an “unprecedented” anti-Russia campaign in the U.S. and the closure of Russian diplomatic facilities. He promised a symmetrical response to pressure on the Russian media by U.S. authorities. No one doubts that Russia had meddled in the U.S. elections, probably working with both Republicans and Democrats. But even if the Mueller investigation throws up evidence of such interference, since 73% of the Republicans and 13% of the Democrats are convinced that the President is not guilty of obstruction of justice, an impeachment is not likely on this account. But the shadow such evidence casts on elections in the U.S. and U.S.-Russia relations will be dark and deep.
T.P. Sreenivasan is a former Ambassador of India and currently Director General, Kerala International Centre, Thiruvananthapuram
