If 2016 was the year of hubris for Brexiteers, and despair and anger for those who voted to remain, 2017 was a year of reality checks. In the past year, it became clear that many of the lavish promises of the Leave camp could never be fulfilled, such as the suggestion that health-care funding would rise dramatically (one of the now infamous pledges of the Leave campaign was that £350 million a week would go towards the National Health Service instead of the European Union). Initial hopes that Brexit could be thwarted, or fundamentally altered, after the government was required to gain approval from Parliament following a legal challenge in the Supreme Court have dwindled somewhat. The government was able to plough ahead with pursuing its vision of a post-Brexit Britain — out of the single market and out of the customs union — despite strong and spirited opposition in Parliament and beyond. To date, both the Conservatives and Labour remain committed to delivering Brexit, in one form or another.
The end of a crucial phase
It would be hard to say who came out on top of the debate by the end of the year: the Brexiteers or their critics. The government made much of the fact that it technically made it through the first phase of Brexit negotiations, on Britain’s exit terms, before the year ended. Europe had all along said that talks on the future trade relationship could not begin until this crucial phase was over. However, it is far from a comfortable victory for Britain. Promises were made with ease, only to be unfulfilled. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson’s contention that Europe could “go whistle” when it came to the “divorce bill” proved to be the bravado that most had suspected it was: Britain will pay €40-60 billion to leave the EU.
Then there was the “Irish problem” — how to resolve having no hard border between the European nation of Ireland and Britain’s Northern Ireland while still leaving the customs union, and not having any major legislative differences across the U.K. The contentions of Brexiteers that the warning of the scale of this problem was mere scaremongering also proved inaccurate. In their statement setting out the agreement in the first phase, European leaders warned that though progress had been made on this issue, much remained unresolved. The extent of the power wielded by the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, which is propping up the Theresa May government, became clear after it initially torpedoed an agreement on the Irish issue, over plans for different rules for Northern Ireland and the British mainland. It has insisted on constitutional, legislative and regulatory uniformity across the U.K.
Until recently, leading members of the Leave movement within the government had been insisting that Brexit in its key aspects — including the end of the freedom of movement, despised by many in that camp — would end in March 2019, two years after Britain triggered Article 50. However, British industry cannot manage without a transition period, and Europe is insistent that a transition phase can only exist if Britain continues to meet its EU membership obligations, including around freedom of movement and the remit of the European Court of Justice and European regulations. These regulations include laws brought in after Britain left the union. In addition, Europe’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier ruled out earlier this month something that many had been holding out for: special terms for Britain’s financial services sector, including so-called passporting rights that would have given Britain the ability to continue business unhindered within the union.
All in all, the negotiations are a far cry from what one Cabinet Minister described this summer as the “easiest in history”. While Brexiteers continue to maintain their optimistic stance, a certain level of caution has begun to imbue the negotiations at a formal level. According to the agreement with the European Commission, if a final deal with the EU is not reached, Britain will maintain “full alignment” with the rules of the European internal market and customs union. This would prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland, potentially leaving the door open for effectively remaining in the customs union and single market. The commitment has raised the hackles of many in the Leave camp, who have warned that such a move could effectively make Britain a rule-taker.
A crucial year ahead
While Britain has progressed along the path to Brexit, 2018 will be the year when the most crucial questions will finally have to be addressed, away from rhetoric and bravado. What does “taking back control” mean, particularly when one option would leave Britain effectively following European rules without having a say? Other critics have pointed to the timidity with which Britain has broached controversial governments — from the U.S. under Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia — arguing that in its eagerness to establish post-Brexit trade deals, it is willing to put fundamental values on hold, and forgo the global leadership role it had once touted.
Britain in 2018 will also have to address one of the most contentious issues: immigration from within and outside the EU. Ending free movement is one of the issues on which the government has been most stubborn, arguing that it was one of the main takeaways of the referendum. But its stance has sparked fear in many industries — from the creative to agriculture, from banking to construction. There are also concerns for the National Health Service — Britain has seen an exodus of European nurses and midwives since the Brexit vote. Finding a solution that satisfies both industries as well as the “hard” wing of the Leave camp will prove a major challenge for the government.
Context of CHOGM
The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM), which is scheduled to take place in London in April, and which will bring together leaders from across the world, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will also force Britain to further confront reality and spell out what it really wants from Brexit. It has posited the Commonwealth as one of the routes for its future trading ambitions. But without concessions on immigration — in particular, the movement of professionals, especially in the IT sector — it’s hard to see how such a plan can counterbalance the inevitable losses to trade that will follow Brexit. Prime Minister May’s visit to India in 2016 highlighted the difficulties of its approach, but it was possible for Britain to brush aside the issue to a certain extent. With Brexit looming less than a year after the CHOGM meeting, this will be much harder this time round.
vidya.ram@thehindu.co.in
