The former cricket icon and now president of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, is all padded up and back on the political pitch, threatening to “lock down” Islamabad. He intends to descend on the capital city on November 2 with a million-strong crowd that will spare no effort to overthrow the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif if it resorts to putting hurdles in his way. Both Mr. Khan and the government have chosen to ignore the orders by the Islamabad High Court over their plans to cripple life in Islamabad once again.
Supporting cast This is not the first time that Mr. Khan is appealing to the masses to help him bring change to ensure a better life and system of governance in the country. Unsure whether he will be able to pull this off without the help of a massive turnout to compel Mr. Sharif to accede to his demands to either resign or present himself for accountability in the wake of the Panama Papers revelations, he has rallied the usual suspects — Maulana Tahir-ul-Qadri and his Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT), and the >Awami Muslim League (AML) led by the ‘Pindi Boy’ who has been at the forefront of protests against the ruling clique since the days of General Ayub Khan, Sheikh Rashid.
Just two days before November 2, addressing people who had managed to make it to his residence in Islamabad at Bani Gala despite all efforts by the government to stop them, Mr. Khan thundered: “We are ready for the worst possible scenario. I am ready to go to jail but are they, the government, ready to face the consequences of such a move? All Pakistanis must join hands with PTI. It is now or never.” He has also come down hard on former President Asif Ali Zardari and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman, as well as the parliament and other state institutions, accusing them of dodging the issue of corruption and Panamagate.
Nobody in Pakistan would deny the fact that the country is in dire need of good governance and leadership. Many in the street openly criticise the old political parties, including the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) now led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, of having failed to bring about the kind of improvements promised in their election sloganeering. The rise of the PTI draws from this dissatisfaction and Mr. Khan’s charisma — a saviour and role model for the middle classes and the youth of Pakistan.
But it seems the good Captain is in too much of a hurry to wait for the next elections in 2018, and has chosen to start his campaigning much before that date. If this ensures an early election, all the better. Since 1996, the party has come a long way, emerging as the second largest political party in the country, and with a provincial government, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK).
No doubt the PTI sees, and points to, many reasons for Mr. Sharif to step down, Panamagate et al, and is determined to capitalise on all of these to a point where an early election becomes inevitable. The question is: Will he be able to push when it comes to shove? Of course, the government is determined to push back. Already before D-Day, it has cracked down on PTI activists and leadership, blocking all access to the capital for those converging on the city from Sindh, Punjab and KPK. Incidentally, the government tactics stand in complete contravention of the orders of the High Court, as it insists that Mr. Khan must wait for the 2018 elections for his turn, if at all.
Not that Mr. Khan needs to do much, with the Sharif government already under pressure on many fronts, including offshore accounts and national security. Many analysts in Pakistan are of the opinion that a transitional government which would ensure smooth early elections had already been on the political horizon when the Panama Papers story broke. Maybe Mr. Khan just could not let go the opportunity of putting that most famous of the political slogans in Pakistan to test: “ Girti hooee dewaroon ko aik dhakka aur do (give another push to the falling walls).
If he chooses to take the democratic road, the panic on the part of the government to use force and mobilise the administration to “lock down” the capital would be tantamount to contempt of court. But if he believes that he can bully the national institutions into giving a verdict in his favour as his storm troopers descend on the capital from Sindh, Punjab and KPK, the outcome could be as embarrassing as his ‘dharna’ in 2014. He would be seen as being no better than those he accuses from the heights of his now famous containers — whose use his party has now perfected as being the perfect pulpit from which to spit fire on opponents and state institutions alike.
Weak on development issues While there is no harm in adopting an anti-Nawaz strategy, the rub lies in its application. Rather than bulldozing his way into government, Mr. Khan would need to counter the popular development narratives and activities of the Sharif government, on the basis of which the PML(N) is confident that it would have an easy ride through the elections in 2018 for a second term. Mr. Khan simply cannot convince the people that he would rid them of all the social and political malaises that afflict the country with a political strategy based on unconvincing evidence and an anti-development narrative. Indeed, nothing will be achieved by self-flagellation and show of brute street power. If his ‘dharna’ in 2014 proved anything, it showed that the parliament has now emerged as one of the most appropriate forums for the PTI to take up its case for change. It might even find willing partners for this among some of the mainstream parties, including the PPP. Rather than going out into the street screaming for blood on November 2, the PTI would need to go back to the political drawing board, and maybe eventually to the parliament.
Related article:>Sharif pursuing Modi’s interests in Pakistan: Imran
Najam Rafique is with the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad.
