The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) , which has emerged as the single largest party in Karnataka , has again set foot in the south, and hopes to take it forward. But the task may not be that easy. The Congress, on the other hand, which stitched together a social coalition in Karnataka, has managed to hold on to its support base; but it has found it difficult to move beyond its core support base. Though this social coalition enabled it to put up a fight against the BJP, it still failed to steal a march on the BJP. Similarly, the dependence of the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), on its core support base among the Vokkaligas, numerically strong in the southern Karnataka region, did help the party put up a decent performance. But it also failed to show any sign of an expansion in other regions or acceptability among other social groups.
The result shows two things: the limitation of politics based if not solely, but largely on social coalitions. It also sends out the message that in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, neither the Congress nor any regional party can pose a challenge to the BJP. The regional parties have to come together, with the Congress being a part of such a coalition.
Even with a vote share less than the Congress’s (38%), the BJP (36.2%) ended up winning 104 seats, compared to the Congress’s 78. The performance of the JD(S), with 37 seats and a vote share of 18.3% this time, was similar to its standing in 2013 (40 seats and about 20%). In 2013, the Congress got 122 seats. But the verdict this time does not indicate a complete rejection of the Congress in the State. Its vote share has remained more or less intact. The increase in vote share has been more for the BJP than the Congress. It not only increased its vote share from 32.3% — merged vote share of the BJP, the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and the Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress Party (BSRCP) of the Reddy brothers — to around 36%, but also the concentration of votes for the BJP in some regions resulted in more seats.
Region-wise reading
Traditionally strong in the coastal region, the BJP managed a sweep, winning 18 of the 21 Assembly seats and polling more than 50% votes. The party also did very well in the Mumbai-Karnataka and Central-Karnataka regions. In all three regions its principal opponent was the Congress, so the gains made were at the expense of the Congress. In the southern Karnataka region, the BJP won only 9 of the 51 Assembly seats. Here, the JD(S) improved its showing, winning 25. Its gain was at the expense of the Congress. The only region where the Congress improved its vote share was the Hyderabad-Karnataka region (42.2%), a gain of 7.6 percentage points compared to previous elections but with a loss of 4 seats.
Social coalitions
The BJP went into these elections with a very thin social coalition, depending heavily on upper caste votes. Despite the Congress playing the Lingayat card, the BJP was banking on Lingayat votes after B.S. Yeddyurappa’s return to its fold. The upper castes did vote for the BJP (52%) helping the party retain 62% of the Lingayat vote. The party was also able to draw votes from other communities. Among the lower Other Backward Caste (OBC) voters, 37% voted for the BJP as against 40% for the Congress. Among Dalits, it was 28% for the BJP, 48% for the Congress and 18% for the JD(S). The BJP managed 32% of the Adivasi vote; it was 46% for the Congress and 17% for the JD(S). The BJP also managed to spilt the Christian vote, according to a Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey — 40% voted for the BJP.
These inroads can be attributed to one factor — the image of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. There may not have been a “Modi wave” in Karnataka but there is no denying the fact that his whirlwind rallies in the last few days of campaigning made a big difference for the BJP.
The Congress managed to hold on to its support base of Dalits, Adivasis, Muslims and the Lower OBC castes. CSDS surveys show that sizeable numbers of them backed the Congress. Nearly 65% of Muslim voters voted for the Congress. But there was an undercurrent of a class division; while the lower class and poor voters sided with the Congress, the well-to-do sections sided with the BJP. CSDS surveys show the poor (42%) and the lower class (39%) voted for the Congress. Among middle and upper class voters, it was 34% and 33%, respectively. While the Congress seemed to be losing its advantage over the BJP among poor voters in many States, the Karnataka verdict shows that the party still has a grip on its traditional support base.
Lessons for the Opposition
The experiment of an opposition coalition in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections (Gorakhpur and Phulpur) needs to be replicated in different States in order to pose a challenge to the BJP in the 2019 general election. As the BJP is bound to gain from a split in anti-BJP votes, the only way for the Opposition to pose a challenge could be in the form of alliances and coalitions. In her reaction to the Karnataka verdict, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee was right when she pointed out that the Congress had made a mistake by not forming an alliance with the JD(S). Had this happened, the BJP’s tally could have been limited to 70 seats while this alliance could have possibly won 150 seats.
Sanjay Kumar, a professor, is the Director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)
