Gambler’s fallacy

July 10, 2017 12:05 am | Updated 12:16 am IST

Psychology

A cognitive bias where an individual believes that an outcome is unlikely to happen because it has already happened a number of times in the past. It is considered a fallacy because the chances that a random event will occur in the future does not in any way depend on the frequency of its occurrence in the past. For example, a flipped coin landing “heads” up for 10 times in a row does not increase the chances of it landing “tails” up when it is flipped the next time. The probability of the coin landing either “heads” up or “tails” up is still 50-50.

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