Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dramatic demonetisation announcement, the most vocal political opponent of the man and his move has been West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
Behind the scenes, she has emerged as the key strategist for opposition parties that have banded themselves against the measure, advising them on what the next step should be. And so, not surprisingly, the question that is now being asked in political circles is whether Ms. Banerjee can become the face of an anti-Modi movement in the run-up to the general election in 2019, possibly replacing contenders like Nitish Kumar.
Skill sets
While these are early days, she is definitely working in that direction. It is pointed out that that compared to her competitors, Ms. Banerjee alone has the same skill sets as Mr. Modi at the hustings: tenacity, the ability to connect with people, and a Teflon-like quality that ensures that nothing negative sticks to her.
Ms. Banerjee won a big victory earlier this year in the West Bengal Assembly elections with the Saradha and Narada scams leaving her untouched, just as the post-Godhra communal violence did not damage but helped Mr. Modi’s prospects in the Gujarat elections that followed, setting the stage for his massive victory in the 2014 general election.
Clearly, Ms. Banerjee has not lost either her fire or her uncompromising stance. In recent days, she has even demonstrated new facets of her political acumen, reaching out to her once arch-rival, the Communist Party of India (Marxist). She is in regular touch with the top leadership of the Congress, the party to which she once belonged. She has always had the support and blessings of the Nationalist Congress Party’s Sharad Pawar. If she already had an equation with Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, a new rapport has now been developed with Hardik Patel’s new party and the Shiv Sena.
She is also keeping a sharp eye on the government’s efforts to divide the Opposition, and is advising parties to meet ministers collectively rather than individually. On November 23, the Prime Minister had reportedly sent her a message to meet him, but she turned it down.
Growing solidarity among Opposition parties
All this has evidently worked. From the start of the current winter session of Parliament, when most major political parties refused to accompany the Trinamool Congress to meet President Pranab Mukherjee, solidarity among the opposition parties has grown. Some are even comparing this change to the time when V.P. Singh galvanised opposition parties against the Congress on the alleged pay-offs for the Bofors guns in the late 1980s. She then met the President again to lay the ground for a meeting between him and all the opposition parties on November 28, the day when countrywide protests, or Jan Aakrosh Diwas, are to be held by the Opposition against the demonetisation move.
By reaching out to the CPI(M), Ms. Banerjee also appears to have set an example to rivals who would have been loath to share political space otherwise: on November 23, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam all participated in the protest, standing in front of Mahatma Gandhi’s statue in the precincts of Parliament.
But her style differs from the other opposition parties: she has been the most strident critique of demonetisation, even seeking a rollback. Compare that with Mr. Kumar’s ambivalence — even as he has said he supports Mr. Modi’s move to tackle black money (some see it as a way to corner political partner Lalu Prasad with whom he is having problems), his party colleagues in Parliament, led by Sharad Yadav, are at the forefront of the anti-demonetisation protests.
In the craft of political communication, Ms. Banerjee, like Mr. Modi, chooses to either be for or against an issue, leaving little room for nuance.
Ms. Banerjee will be visiting Lucknow, Varanasi and Patna, trying out her Hindi at public rallies and doing what she does best: confrontational politics. Later she will head to Gujarat. She already has an equation with Mr. Kumar; both the Janata Dal (United) and the SP were among the few parties that joined her rally on November 23 at Jantar Mantar. Those familiar with Janata Parivar politics say that it won’t be enough to reach out to the constituents of the JD(U) in Bihar and the SP in Uttar Pradesh. She has to forge a coalition with their leaders — and this is what she is doing.
Chances of success will depend on how long the cash crunch continues, and how it affects the economy at large. Reports of deaths in bank queues, of small-scale businesses being unable to pay their workers and disruptions in the agricultural cycle have been coming in, but there is no sign of wider social unrest. Mr. Modi’s emotional speeches about demonetisation serving the greater national good have struck a chord with the middle class and poor, who appear to have bought the line that this is punishing the rich far more than it is punishing them.
But there could be a tipping point if the cash crunch continues for much longer, and Ms. Banerjee is readying herself for that moment. Meanwhile, the skills she acquired in her battle to topple the Red Citadel in West Bengal, turning the prospect of industry and jobs at Singur into a civil rights violation, will be in play.
The BJP-led government was steaming ahead without any protest. The long-term negative impacts of demonetisation on the economy has provided the Opposition with an opportunity. Ms. Banerjee has presented herself as the face of that Opposition at the moment, ensuring that even if she is unable to retain that slot till 2019, she will certainly be a key player in the next general election.
smita.g@thehindu.co.in
